Senator Graham, just now, saying, to pass a withdrawal in 120 days implies necessarily "every al-qa'ida would have a tremendous boost in morale".
First, attacks would just as likely trail off in anticipation of a withdrawal. Why confront "the Americans", when you can just wait for them to leave? These psychology games are not so easy to play. Don't believe me? Mistakes are often made by those who get drunk by "boosts in morale". Therefore, it pays falsely to 'embolden' your enemy, right?
Second, on the heels of Orin Hatch's comments, have a look at The Fallacy of "Emboldening Terrorists". There are other policy options available. [Also, Mr. Hatch, I can think of no thing that would bring the Iraqis together more quickly than a military move by Iran to come into the country.]
Third, few, if any military strategists believe that terrorist groups, usually small and marginal, can consolidate politically any military gains. Indeed, the more they consolidate, to take the reigns of control and try to impose order, the easier they are, most often, to topple in counter-action. What's more, there is every indication that the Iraqi populace knows and doesn't want al-qaeda, which makes the likelihood that al-qaeda could "take over" even a more marginalized view.
Separately, it is a flat lie that the plus-up is responsible for what happened in Ar-Ramadi. The "Sons of Anbar" program was in place long before King George "The Decider" rejected the comprehensive Baker-Hamilton report, in favor of a change in military strategy only that condemned his R-ubberstamp party and the Nation to another six months of do-nothing Iraqi Government - so far.
Last, the debate so far is very civil. I haven't seen anyone get up and call Senator Warner on his long line of requests for "six more months" and ask whether the GOP have any shame in misrepresenting the length, cost, and prospects of this war so dramatically to the American people. I haven't seen Senator Byrd, but I can hear him recalling his old lines about an arrogant, imperious and secret Presidency that has done so much to avoid having to "level with the American people" about the length and cost of the war, of stringing everyone along, instead, with "six more months".
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Helping Lindsey Graham ... Again
