IMF says that non-oil real GDP in Iraq may have risen in 2006 and will do so in 2007.
Yet other reports say that maybe 1-2 million people have fled the country.
Question:
If 5-10% of the country leave, how likely is it that GDP rises? (Were all of them unemployed?)
Assume that the people who left are the ones who could afford to. If circa 1 million people have left and they had productive capacity of $2,500/year, then we might add about $2.5 billion to the annual and projected Iraqi costs of the war, very conservatively.
Separately, this month a "surge" in electricity (pun intended) is just "six months away", says the military.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Iraqi Economy - Measurement without Data
