Sixteen thousand soldiers, 12-days, 63 captured or killed. Implied Ratio: 254:1.
Plenty good came out of this op, but, as Petreaus remarked, we have one shot left - you tell me, did they make big enough waves?
And would you take your measurement of counterinsurgency success now? In terms of action-reaction-counteraction, it's probably too soon, especially without a reliable track-record on which to make estimates of 'hold' and 'build' - check out the 'hold' part of the clear-hold-build below.
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Action:
BAGHDAD — Operation Lightning Hammer concluded Wednesday [Aug 22nd] after a 12-day, large-scale operation to disrupt al-Qaeda and other terrorist elements in the Diyala River Valley, a complex area of villages and palm groves in Iraq’s Diyala province.
The operation, which involved approximately 16,000 Iraqi and Coalition forces clearing [but not holding?] approximately 50 villages, was a key element in Multi-National Corps-Iraq’s overall operation, Phantom Strike; and resulted in 26 al-Qaeda members killed, 37 suspected terrorists detained and the discovery of 10 weapons caches.
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Reaction (counter-offensive):
Just as Coalition and Iraq forces wrapped up Operation Lightning Hammer in the Diyala River Valley north of Baqubah, al Qaeda in Iraq conducted two major strikes in the province on August 23 [the day after]: one south and one east of the provincial capital. The first attack, and infantry-styled assault against two villages south of Baqubah, was the more sensational of the two.
Over 200 al Qaeda in Iraq fighters assaulted mosques and the homes of tribal sheikhs in the village of Kanan."They blew up the mosque, then they bombed houses crowded with family members." Brig. Gen. Ali Dalayan, the police chief of Baqubah told AFP. Al Qaeda targeted the tribal sheikhs recently pledged to fight the terror group. Twenty-three people were killed during the battle, including one of the sheikhs, several of his sons, and a policeman, AFP reported. "The attackers however managed to abduct 15 people, eight women and seven children." Twenty-two al Qaeda fighters were later detained south of Kanan.
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So, now what happens? Go back and pay for the same real-estate twice?
Last, don't you wish there were a political history to go along with these dispatches. I remember reading that, early on, there was a big mess with the appointment/election of the Governor of Diyala (as best I recall). But, if you read stuff like this, you see how ... little context there is.
