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Sunday, May 4, 2008

Knew Labour

Oh, dear, it's grave (and there is a touch of the flu around here, maybe?):

The post-mortems - the mot juste, I think - on New Labour have missed a point. The party is paying the price for the fact that the New Labour project was based upon profound, and now crippling, intellectual insecurity.

Put yourself in the shoes of New Labour’s founders in the 80s and early 90s. You see that traditional social democratic arguments for redistribution don’t work. You see Labour’s traditional support base, the manual working class, declining in numbers (pdf). And you see a managerial class winning what you want - wealth and power.

What do you do?

You abandon traditional Labourism, in favour of an appeal to Mondeo man and Worcester woman. You retain a vestigial belief in income redistribution but defend it only because it is the partner of economic efficiency, rather than a goal in its own right, and you pursue it through stealth taxes and complicated tax credits for working families. And you adopt a cringing deference towards the managerial class, believing it should be free of burdensome taxes whilst having the ability to deliver top-down reform of the public services.

What we’re now seeing is the collapse of this strategy.

Food Porn

Homemade Yee Mein (saucy noodles):

This dish is easy to customize and is the nearest thing to Chinese comfort food I can think of, off the top of my head.

You can make-to-suit with this dish quite a lot! I don't tell anyone, but I use Udon noodles (horrors!), because they are soft and seem to soak up the sauce nicely (they also come in nifty packages, so you can know exactly how many noodles you are making).

We are lucky to be located very near to an excellent (and large) Asian grocery store.

[click to embiggen]

Safe for home: egg noodles in rich hoisin gravy

Sunday Tea Dance

Ladies, ladies, ladies .... It's 1937 2008!

Turn on that Red Hot Heat (and Burn Your Blues Away)!

Of the Cotton Club:

SuperDay+9: Guam - No One Wins - Suprise!

The Democrats staged another one of their pineapple upside down contests, in which no one won. Surprise!

Guam will likely split its four 2-2, a net gain of zero, but it could end up being 1.5 to 2.5, even, given the magic of being liberal. Net money spent: ?. Obama's seven-vote win will pressure supers (3 up for grabs), there, possibly; but, then again, maybe no more than the summer breezes.

OH WHEN THE SAINTS, COME MARCHING IN

Meanwhile, four more supers declared themselves, with three ambling in for Obama and just one for Clinton. Two from Maryland, one of the States with the largest number of undecideds, split one-one.

Slate puts up a java-based delegate tracker and finally asks the media to stop drumming up ratings for their election-year coverage (Hillary Clinton, Fairy Princess).

WHO'S GONNA PAY FOR THIS MESS?

"I’m telling you, my husband is going to visit every place where two or more people gather in North Carolina before Tuesday."

-Hillary Clinton, Can I Get a Witness?


Yeah, but who is gonna pay to have him go back and undo the damage he had done to the democratic nominee? He's not going back to all those small towns. How many small Indiana towns did Bill visit when he was President? This is the biggest fairy-tale ...

THE TALLY AND PROJECTIONS

THE MICHIGAN 'PROPOSAL'

Those Michiganders have a proposal out, amidst their threats to the rest of the party, to split the difference between the delegation "as is" and what the Obama camp have suggested is a more meaningful split. One problem appears to be that delegates are pledged to "uncommitted", so putting them all in the "Obama" column might be untenable. Anyway, here's a peek:

MichiganTotal"Obama"ClintonLead/ (Trail)Margin
Obama
Margin
Clinton
Pledged, Elected833647-1143%57%
Pledged, PLEOs17710-341%59%
Pledged, At Large281216-443%57%
Subtotal1285573-1843%57%
Supers271116-545%55%
Add-Ons202-245%55%
Subtotal291118-745%55%
Grand Totals1576691-2542%58%
Proposal:1285969-1046%54%
italics indicate split based on percentage of vote won by Clinton, NOT based on survey of MI's named supers. The Politico survey for Michigan suggests a current 8-1-19 split, Clinton-Obama-Undeclared.

The method for these projections is unchanged. I've added a line for the six undeclared Pelosi club members, who will cast their vote as supers according to the final pledged delegate count.

Table. Projections (include the add-on delegates from Illinois for Obama coming Monday)

Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers"Days UntilAll RemainingElected RemainingSupers RemainingClinton Must Do Margin All RemainingClinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged
Pennsylvania-1167440826620%38%
Guam-166740426313%24%
Indiana259133225913%29%
North Carolina246521724822%49%
West Virginia943118924220%53%
Kentucky1637613823819%65%
Oregon163158622928%shutout
Puerto Rico282583122729%shutout
Montana302361522135%shutout
South Dakota30219021939%n.m.
FL, MI AdjAugust254

34%0%
Pelosi Club, Adj17248

35%0%

...because Obama "wins" Guam, it is projected under "winner takes all" that he will pick up the State's remaining, undeclared supers. This may or may not occur, but it's one way of working the picture:

Projection1: Winner takes all remaining SupersDays UntilProjected Margin Clinton over ObamaClinton Net Pickup (Loss) PledgedClinton Net Pickup (Loss) SupersObama Lead / (Trail)Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail)
Pennsylvania-11-

137154
Michigan Adj
-18
119136
Florida Adj
-38
8198
Guam-10%0-38498
Indiana22%247896
North Carolina2-9%-11-11100107
West Virginia920%6688101
Kentucky1620%1147390
Oregon16-10%-6-98896
Puerto Rico2820%1127585
Montana30-10%-2-68387
South Dakota30-10%-1-28688
Total:
-10-15

MI, FL assumed seated as sent, although this would be an exceptionally generous gift from the rest of the party to these rogue states.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The Pristine Shores of the NRO

NOT SUBURBAN FLIGHT, INTELLECTUAL FLIGHT

Andrew just can't bring himself, yet, to condemn the faux tower of purity over at the NRO, written by a bunch of people who never, ever had to face the real possibility that they might have to interact with people ... sooo, sooo beneath them.

I'm inclined to let them dig their hole for now, and thank Andrew for pointing out the screeds so that we can all keep taking notes. The lot of them are disgusting.

WHATEVER-IT-TAKES STANDARDS

Even George Will, erstwhile high mind of the intellectually liberated Right, dished up in his column at the WaPo one of the best showings yet why he is and has been so well suited to the apologetics of the Reagan Devolution: situational ethics. His idea? Indulge yourself in the freakshow. He appears to have no problem with Krauthammer's 9/10th trip to yellow journalism (or VDH's).

Even Douthat comma Ross is teetering on the dark side, painting a picture of how wonderfully we should all drink and eat up in the Pottersville of Journalism that is somehow inevitable, rather than ... well, just ask for better - or refuse to participate with a station that went the same way as the GOP under Bush, sinking themselves, without much help from across the isle.

Wright is a racist of the raving kind? Ha. I'd wager that many people would rather spend years in his pews, after visiting, than an afternoon with the vipers at the NRO.

CAN WE OUTFOX O'REILLY AND FOX AT THEIR OWN GAME?

I'd hate to play on their turf, but their vacant jingoism, played in harmony by VDH, grates.

Here's a question for them:

"Mr. O'Reilly, you say you are proud of America. Are you proud of the Dred Scott decision? A simple yes/no will do, here in the "no spin zone"!


THE MISSOURI COMPROMISE

They will probably give the "Hucklebeee" response, but his response is not a contrast, just more smear. Just read Wright's prepared remarks from the NPC meeting ...

One thing is for sure, you can bet that Huckabee is making sure there are no copies of his sermons lying around ...

Right Is Loving No Consumption Taxes "Holiday"

So, I guess it is "okay" to have the Bush-Administration put income taxes on holiday (below revenues for several years, even), but it's not o.k. to even have a summer of consumption tax breaks...

Listen to some of these people argue, you'd think that the price-elasticity of demand - that vexing quantity that you'd never, ever hear a Pigou-Club dunce-cap wearer mention, was not near zero, even in the mid-term.

Meanwhile, the hopes of a globally coordinated windfall-profits tax seems slim, although they have been after it in Europe, arguably, more studiously than in the USA, where everyone knows that our justified reluctance to trust the government and oil companies to protect the environment has caused all kinds of hand-wringing potential...

Dog Whistle Politics Without the Whistle

HOMO-HATE LETTER SENT TO VOTERS

In Queens, of all places, some straight-talk during the political season from one campaign:

"You need to know that one of the candidates that is trying to get Dennis' seat is a f----t," the letter began.

"If you do not want your kids to be exposed to this garbage, you need to make sure you vote - and not for Charlie ... Ober," the diatribe continues. "Our kids will be exposed to f----ts holding hands, kissing and running up Myrtle Ave. in a dress."

Socialized Expenses, Various

As Jim "GI Bill" Webb continues to find people who are willing to love an increase in structural costs for the military and the long-tail of my own expenses still staring me in the face, this also made my ears ring:

Overheard yesterday:

Guy on cell-phone: Hey, did you hear about ... "JB"? Yeah, his parents got him a brand new SUV.

[Pause for listen]:


Guy on cell-phone: Yes he is. He's going off to school and they bought a $50,000 car, a brand new Porsche SUV. Can you believe that? An 18 y.o. kid in a 50 thousand dollar new car. Would you do that?

[Pause]

Guy on cell-phone: Well, he's got a $200,000 scholarship to Michigan so they don't have to pay, so they ... And he doesn't even have to make the team to get the scholarship. Unbelievable.

Breaking: Guam breaking narrowly for Obama

4% spread; Obama v. Clinton at 1736 v. 1599. Turnout was huge, up to 4,000. (Update: Reuters is saying maybe over 5,000).

[updates with new tables when results known - hopefully later today].

DEMOCRATIC SUPERDELEGATES CONTINUE TO LET CLINTONS LIE TO ELECTORATE

Ultimately, that has to be bad for party politics, I don't care how many new people register. When the lie comes undone, people are not going to understand and are going to be angry.

Separately, the other Clinton continues to lie to voters:

Hillary in North Caroline: “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country – probably even a lot of the world - is looking to see what North Carolina decides.” - link


That's right. The "world" is looking on in horror at American democracy, I'd bet. There is still blood dripping from Hannity's mouth over his feast on Wright, and he's still turning the knife, there.

Both Clintons are doubled-down on the idea that a loss for Obama is a game-changer in NC.

It simply is not.

Clinton would have to win North Carolina by 92%-8%, just to wipe out Obama's lead among elected delegates. If you do not include MI and FL delegates, she could win the entire state (100%-zip) and it would NOT put her into the lead among elected delegates.

Friday, May 2, 2008

SuperDay+8: The lucidity of math

LUCIDITY OF MATH MAY YET PROVE SELF-EVIDENT

The DailyKos put up this sign, today, setting the stage for people to realize that the shaft that brought Hillary to the likes of O'Reilly is going to close up, faster than she can run. I still prefer the hurdles-rates / break-even approach, because if you translate this table using projections it just confirms that neither candidate will "win" based on pledge delegates alone.

The Magic Number (2,024 delegates needed)
Barack Obama 1,733 291
Hillary Clinton 1,603 421

THE CLINTONIAN IMAGINARY PLANE

Sadly, Bill Clinton continues to campaign against the Democratic Party nominee in small town America, possibly doing irreparable harm. It cannot be good for the party to set up false expectations: "If she carries the Mountains of North Carolina then she will carry the state of North Carolina. If she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination."

Of course, she will not. If Hillary were to carry NC by 1% say and get all of its remaining supers, she still would still need to carry 44% of the remaining elected delegates (a split of 72%-28%, a margin so large neither candidate has achieved it). Rather than a spread of 35% of remaining superdelegates, she would need 20%, a 60-40 split that, again , would also be beyond her reach.

THE DAY IN SUPERS

One each. As noted before, this puts Clinton further behind, not even, because Obama has the lead.

Tonight : GUAM - results ought to be available at first light on Saturday ...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Hillary Rodham ... Does 'Methodism' Let You Call People Pinheads, too?

HILLARY'S DAY ONE MIGHT JUST BE 'THE LONGEST DAY'

While Hillary is out gleefully passing judgment on her fellow Americans, namely Dr. Wright, I wonder what we can say about her own moral showing, going onto a television opinion program (O'Reilly) that routinely puts up people for ridicule and has a recurring segment in which Americans are labeled "pinheads" and "far left loons" and snipes at gay people for going to the ballpark.

Is that how she intends to use the bully pulpit of the Presidency?

Courtesy "My Gayest Look", who have ten pages that sum up my sentiment exactly:



Personally, I think I'd send my Lanny-Davis lawyer on National Television to suggest that I'd have walked off that set ... you know, if I was asked the question.


O'Reilly's latest is that Wright is "dishonest", mainly because 'the Factor has learned' that he is ... rich. Well, let's see your tax returns for the past 10 years, Bill, if that's the yardstick. I'm sure your viewers would like to know how rich-dishonest you are for your wealth-creating ministry (and let's not pretend it is anything but, as you 'take care of the flock' every night by promising them that it is you and you alone who are 'looking out for them' and that they should never trust anyone else).

SuperDay+7: Giddy-up

UPDATE: All the charts and figures have been changed in this post. When I revised the tables for 'seated as sent', I ended up double-counting with the prior method of splitting based on the percentage that Clinton won in both MI, FL. The net effect is to substantially raise the Clinton hurdle-rates / the Obama break-even rates.

A former DNC chairman sees the light, finds it high time to help Obama against McCain. Joe Andrew of Indiana.

Otherwise, it was a relatively big-number day. Clinton picked up four unnamed supers from New York and the Obama people said three unnamed supers were on the way from Illinois Monday. A couple of others. (src: MSNBC First Read) [By "unnamed", understand 'people without rank or title'.]

At the end of the day, the difference between the two candidates stood roughly at 20 delegates. Clinton's must-do hurdle rate climbed, as expected, to over 35%, as the available pool for her to catch up shrunk.

Naturally, Clinton campaign are trying desperately to have people look at poll numbers.

Here is the results table of the projections, assuming that each state's remaining supers go to the winner of the state's elected delegates:

Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers"Days UntilAll RemainingElected RemainingSupers RemainingClinton Must Do Margin All RemainingClinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged
Pennsylvania-967940827120%38%
Guam167240426811%25%
Indiana459633226412%30%
North Carolina447021725320%50%
West Virginia1143618924719%54%
Kentucky1838113824317%67%
Oregon183208623425%shutout
Puerto Rico302633123226%shutout
Montana322411522632%shutout
South Dakota32224022435%n.m.
FL, MI AdjAugust259

31%


Here are the assumptions, assuming the 'worst case' in which MI and FL are seated as sent:

Projection1: Winner takes all remaining SupersDays UntilProjected Margin Clinton over ObamaClinton Net Pickup (Loss) PledgedClinton Net Pickup (Loss) SupersObama Lead / (Trail)Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail)
Pennsylvania-9-

136156
Michigan Adj
-18
118138
Florida Adj
-38
80100
Guam12%0377100
Indiana42%247198
North Carolina4-10%-11-1193109
West Virginia1120%6681103
Kentucky1820%1146692
Oregon18-10%-6-98198
Puerto Rico3020%1126887
Montana32-10%-2-67689
South Dakota32-10%-1-27990
Total:
-10-9

SuperDay+7: Where the boys are

The big muscle States for supers
GUAM - BIGGER PRIZE THAN INDIANA

Guam votes 5/3 (Saturday), covering 9 delegates, over 50% of whom are superdelegates (5 of 9), all three of which are undeclared ... Gulp!

[All the media will be telling us about Indiana. There is one super up for grabs there (assuming no switches) and it would take ~10% margin for Clinton or Obama to pick up 8 delegates and neutralize anyone who won big in Guam. There are three supers and one add-on yet to be decided in Indiana. As I said before, accurate info requires a lot of digging!]

WHERE THE BOYS ARE OVERALL

There are some other states with a high percentage of named supers who are not declared. Among them, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Ohio. See Table 1.

The list of the states with the largest number of named supers who are not declared is just as interesting. Maryland, California, Texas, Maine, Missouri.

Figures based on The Politico totals, which are not too far from NYT, who provides some color on the undecideds, here.


Table 1. States with a high percentage of "named Supers" undeclared - either asleep at the wheel or trying to remain neutral.
Out State C O R
100% Guam 0 0 5
67% Louisiana 2 1 6
67% Oregon 2 2 8
63% Hawaii 2 1 5
63% Montana 0 3 5
60% Oklahoma 1 3 6
57% Maine 1 2 4
53% North Carolina 2 6 9
50% Alaska 1 1 2
50% Delaware 3 1 4
50% Kansas 1 3 4
50% Mississippi 0 3 3
50% Nevada 2 2 4
50% South Carolina 2 2 4
50% West Virginia 3 2 5
47% Ohio 5 5 9


Table 2. Running total of the states with the largest number of named supers who have yet to declare for one candidate or the other.
Out State C O R
%Tlt
33% California 30 14 22
10%
43% Maryland 10 6 12
15%
53% North Carolina 2 6 9
19%
47% Ohio 5 5 9
23%
28% Texas 11 12 9
27%
67% Oregon 2 2 8
31%
47% Tennessee 5 4 8
34%
41% Washington 6 4 7
37%
67% Louisiana 2 1 6
40%
60% Oklahoma 1 3 6
43%
43% Colorado 4 4 6
45%
38% Missouri 5 5 6
48%
38% Virginia 6 4 6
51%
23% Massachusetts 9 11 6
53%
100% Guam 0 0 5
56%
63% Hawaii 2 1 5
58%
63% Montana 0 3 5
60%
50% West Virginia 3 2 5
62%
19% Pennsylvania 16 5 5
64%
57% Maine 1 2 4
66%


[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates, so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing.]

A Factoid a Day

Learn something new everyday.

British author Aldous Huxley, who spent the last 25 years of his life in Los Angeles, first took acid in 1955 and later had it injected while on his death bed.


From the death of Albert Hofmann, the Swiss chemist who "discovered" LSD, and continued to sample the goods (until he decided he didn't need it, ...), while his pharmaceutical company tried to find a way to commercialize the finding ...

I always had an appalling lack of curiosity about the private lives of book writers and artists. It has left these giant gaps in the ... repertoire of understanding. Strangely, it's worked out o.k., providing a new way to revisit old material, grasped "as is".

GG a GoGo

Glen Greenwald is going to be up for a Congressional Medal, one day, I hope.

He's kinda like a modern day Thomas Paine, on some days. This week, he's wrestling with media big-boys. Something about Tiger riders that gets me hot and bothered.

  • Brian Williams nominates Peggy Noonan for a Pulitzer Prize
  • Why the Jeremiah Wright story deserves more attention
  • Brian Williams' "response" to the military analyst story

Food Porn

As before, sounds better in German, somehow: "Der Geschmack war fantastisch, mit deutlichem Raeucheraroma, trotz der nur kurzen Raeucherzeit, das Fleisch wunderbar saftig. Das wird sicherlich nochmal gemacht."

What Bill "Forgot" to Tell Small Town Voters

I wonder how they'll sort out Hillary, if they knew that her recently contrived "small-town girl, with big fight attitude", includes the time she sat on the board of Walmart.

How much is Walmart a friend of small towns?

Well, let's just say, I don't think Walmart is unpopular with the latte-liberal crowd alone ...