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Thursday, December 6, 2007

Ditching Sullivan to Fight Smart and Fight Hard

A LOT OF ROOM FOR DETAILS, BUT LITTLE ROOM IN HIGH STAKES GAME

Who is wearing Republican underwear?
Reforming healthcare is going to have to be an all-or-nothing political deal, most likely. The key elements all have to be in place for reforms to "work" (including in Hillary's proposal, in my view).

Otherwise, in the high stakes, national political "game" of healthcare reform, the Democrats are going to lose, not in enactment, but later on, as Sullivan-punditry pushes forward the wrong candidates, ones who might be inclined to "trust" and "listen" across the isle too much, "uniters" who might get duped into accepting compromises mischievously designed to hobble an effort and bring an end to future fixes and refinements.

"NO DEAL BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL"

Who among the Democrats is most likely to borrow AND sell Reagan's infamous phrase about nuclear arms reduction deals, "No deal is better than a bad deal."?

Here is a tidbit on how things can go wrong, even if the intensions are good. At the national level, there are political costs on those who tried them, against the backdrop of a vicious opposition, looking to find ways to make all of their trumpeted "evils" of "socialized medicine" resonate (and probably willing to set traps).

This shows just how much this reform is a technical challenge, as well.

The line between right and wrong in this context concerns requiring consumers to be insured. If it’s required, and that requirement is effective, guarantee issue [i.e. mandates] can work. In systems where consumers can wait until after a need for insurance develops you wind up with a mess. The poster children for disaster are New York and New Jersey [based on comparatively high premium rates].


THE WAY FORWARD

The more a plan can be vetted before it gets "played" in Congress, the better chance that politicians won't gum it up, perhaps.

At the same time, there needs to be a simple, clear message. Otherwise, the GOP are going to play the complexity-card again.