Some new figures on the GWOT-cost table and some revised, as follows:
NEW AND REVISED
-New: estimates for the "no-fly" zone. A sizable portion of these costs were born by third-parties. Incremental costs are based on a run-rate taken from 1992-1995 period. I've tripled that, to be very conservative, coming in around $1.6B per annum.
-New: estimates for so-called "war inducements". This might have included Turkey; but I've included some estimates for Pakistan only, so far.
-New: Paris Club debt-relief. The U.S. forgave about $4B, based on press reports. Other Paris Club members forgave amounts as specified under "non-US". The classification moved to costs that might be thought of as wealth transfers.
-Revised: Interest costs are now discounted and I've marked down the disability costs to the low-estimate. On the other hand, I've included discounted, projected costs for a 'fast re-deployment' scenario (CBO estimates), in which troops are brought down to 30 K. I've also included the discounted cost of financing that with additional debt.
OF NOTE
Other:
The Congressional Research Service suggests that the DOD has not provided any cost estimates for demobilization, so those may end up as a guesstimate.
The cost to re-equip the military is being paid for now, in current appropriation bills. Invesment in equipment has gone from some $7.2 billion in FY 2004 to $43 billion in the current supplemental. (No, you didn't read that wrong and that is mostly and apples-to-apples comparison!). It's not clear how much of this trend is included in the CBO '30K redeployment' scenario.
'COWBOY' ACCOUNTING?
How's 'efficiency in government' doing at the DOD?
Tansparency Issues
Although the DOD has testified and submitted various reports on Iraq and the global war on terror, information and explanations of changes in the cost of OIF and OEF have been limited, incomplete, and sometimes inconsistent. Until the FY2007 Supplemental and FY2008 War Cost request, DOD has submitted very little information to buttress its requests. Both teh Iraq Study Group and CBO have criticized the DOD's presentation of cost data for Iraq nad the global war on terror.
The Iraq Study Group called the administration's requests "confusing making it difficult for both the general public and members of Congress," to know, something that "should be a simple question" such as the amount requested for Iraq operations.
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Gaps and Discrepancies
CRS, CBO, and GAO have all found various discrepancies in DOD figures - including underestimating budget authority and obligations, mismatches between BA and obligations data, double-counting of some obligations, questionable figures, and lack of information about basic factors that affect costs such as troop strength or operating tempo metrics.
For example, DOD does not count about $7 billion from its FY2003 regular appropriations act that was intended for GWOT but that it cannot track.
