RAMPING UP AND OFF-LOADING
The "plus-up" has inspired people to call for a surge in everything, a surge in diplomacy, a surge in intelligence, ... Everyone said it was too much to try to run three "wars" (Afghan, Iraq, Palestine) simultaneously and build-out homeland security too. The stress is showing. The WH (via NSC Director Hadley) wants to delegate the wars. What's that saying about war being too important to be left to the Generals (French, Clemenceau)? [Rummy is just free, ha ha].
SIMPLE MEASURES IN THE "CLASSIFIED WAR"
The "surge" is about two-thirds completed (50 of 75 Baghdad outposts in place) and the Battle for Baghdad Battle for what is left of Baghdad is on. Iraq Security Forces (ISF) are showing increasing professionalism (Gen. Caldwell reports that they can rotate some of the nine Iraqi battalions that moved to Baghdad, which is a level of flexibility and capacity not seen before). The al-Sadr march was 15K strong, according to the army, not 1 million, as hoped for.
No one has announced dates for local or provincial elections.
DUST STORM
Kaplan throws his hands up - wrongly - suggesting that the timeframe for any strategic move is the next Presidency, not this one.
Anxious to show nay-sayers wrong by pointing to any piece of progress, Krauthammer suggests facts-on-the-ground are better than before.
"Does Krauthammer really expect people to buy this crap?" - Matt Yglesias.
"To which the answer, I'm afraid, is: yes." -AS replies
The truth is that Anbar has changed (important link), but NOT because of the plus-up. Even if AQI is diminished, the insurgency is not over and no local or provincial elections have yet been scheduled. It will be nearing 100+ degrees in Baghdad within six weeks or so. [There are some positive reports out of Sadr city, too.]
'Is the surge working?' seems to mean different things to different people. The plus-up was supposed to support a new security plan for Baghdad, not "solve" all of the Nation's security problems. More troops have significant chance to reduce the violence. Lower violence and/or increased cooperation from the general populace would mean that the surge is working. But lower violence in the interim wouldn't mean is that we are necessarily closer to finishing up in Iraq, altogether.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Are we there yet? Surging everything
