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Thursday, October 9, 2008

The "It will take time" Fallacy

How are we to assess Bush-Paulson's appeal that it will take time for their plans to work?

I'm not sure why that would be true, apart from logistics. Either you have confidence or you don't, right?

The only time you need to "rebuild" confidence is when you don't trust the figures you have and you require a new record of sound performance be built, to gather six months or a year of data that your counterparties ... haven't failed today, to put it bluntly.

If The Plan requires a re-set of that kind (empirical, rather than de facto), it's probably not the best one available. Markets typically turn on a dime, when confidence is properly restored...