Caught my eye. Apparently, "we" didn't know what "we" knew, but we certainly know it now, don't we? Doesn't change anything, but here it is:
I remember writing for a long time after the invasion that we should be happy that the most likely thing had not yet happened: a civil war. So we knew it was a risk; and we knew we had to act quickly to prevent it. We didn't. - AS
But:
The senior intelligence official who agreed to discuss some aspects of both reports said that while the 2004 estimate now seems prescient, analysts failed to predict "the rapid degree of intensification of sectarian mobilization and consciousness, and the speed in which that happened. I don't think we were that insightful." - WaPo
