It's been hard to handicap the Oscars this year. Forest Whittaker got an Oscar winning role in a film whose subject seemed offputting on face, but which turned out to be outstanding. I so greatly admire Peter O'Toole (I love his intonation), but I'm not sure the role was up to it. I haven't seen all of the best actress nominee performances, but Meryl Streep was sublime in "Devil Wears Prada", a role that could have easily gotten out of hand with a lesser actress. "Little Miss Sunshine" seemed to me to warrent creativity awards, rather that outstanding acting or directing. "An Inconvenient Truth" is running as an odds on favorite, but I liked "My Country, My Country" better and even "Jesus Camp". "Babel" seemed to me to warrent a directing award, but that appears set to go to sentimental favorite Scorsese. I didn't think that "The Departed" was a special film (weak screenplay), with the exception of a few absolutely superbly acted scenes (e.g. the "I've got a rat" table-side chat given by Jack Nicholson). "Little Children" has to be one of the best adaptations / screenplays I've seen in a long while, and the film one of the most balanced and complete presentations.
Anyway, here are the odds, as they currently stand:
| Category | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| "Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role" | ||
| Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland | 1/9 | 90% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond | 8/1 | 11% |
| Peter O'Toole (Venus | 6/1 | 14% |
| Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson | 18/1 | 5% |
| Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness | 4/1 | 20% |
| "Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role" | ||
| Helen Mirren (The Queen | 1/25 | 96% |
| Kate Winslet (Little Children | 7/1 | 13% |
| Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada | 15/1 | 6% |
| Penélope Cruz (Volver | 20/1 | 5% |
| Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal | 22/1 | 4% |
| "Best Animated Feature Film of the Year" | ||
| Cars 1/3 | 1/3 | 75% |
| Happy Feet 5/6 | 5/6 | 55% |
| Monster House 12/1 | 12/1 | 8% |
| "Best Achievement in Directing" | ||
| The Departed (Martin Scorsese | 1/5 | 83% |
| Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood | 4/1 | 20% |
| Babel (Alejandro González Iñárritu | 10/1 | 9% |
| The Queen (Stephen Frears | 14/1 | 7% |
| United 93 (Paul Greengrass | 17/1 | 6% |
| Odds On: What movie will win the Oscar for "Best Foreign Language Film of the Year" | ||
| Pan's Labyrinth 1/10 | 1/10 | 91% |
| The Lives of Others 3/1 | 3/1 | 25% |
| Days of Glory (Indigènes) 8/1 | 8/1 | 11% |
| Water 23/1 | 23/1 | 4% |
| After the Wedding 30/1 | 30/1 | 3% |
| Odds On: What movie will win the Oscar for "Best Motion Picture of the Year" | ||
| The Departed 1/2 | 1/2 | 67% |
| Little Miss Sunshine 5/6 | 5/6 | 55% |
| Babel 3/1 | 3/1 | 25% |
| Letters from Iwo Jima 5/1 | 5/1 | 17% |
| The Queen 20/1 | 20/1 | 5% |
| "Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role" | ||
| Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls | 2/3 | 60% |
| Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine | 1/1 | 50% |
| Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond | 4/1 | 20% |
| Mark Wahlberg (The Departed | 4/1 | 20% |
| Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children | 13/1 | 7% |
| "Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role" | ||
| Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls | 1/8 | 89% |
| Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine | 3/2 | 40% |
| Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal | 11/1 | 8% |
| Rinko Kikuchi (Babel | 12/1 | 8% |
| Adriana Barraza (Babel | 16/1 | 6% |
Second source:
79th Oscar Nominees Probability
PICTURE.THEDEPARTED 45.1
PICTURE.LITTLEMISSUNSHINE 22.6
PICTURE.BABEL 21
PICTURE.LETTERSFROMIWOJIM 5
PICTURE.THEQUEEN 4
ACTOR.WHITAKER 82.1
ACTOR.OTOOLE 11.5
ACTOR.DICAPRIO 4
ACTOR.SMITH 0.6
ACTOR.GOSLING 0.1
ACTRESS.MIRREN 92
ACTRESS.STREEP 3
ACTRESS.WINSLET 1
ACTRESS.DENCH 0.3
ACTRESS.CRUZ 0.1
DIRECTOR.SCORSESE 85.1
DIRECTOR.INARRITU 6.7
DIRECTOR.GREENGRASS 1.9
DIRECTOR.FREARS 1.8
DIRECTOR.EASTWOOD 1.7
ACTOR.SUPPORT.MURPHY 62
ACTOR.SUPPORT.ARKIN 27
ACTOR.SUPPORT.HOUNSOU 4.3
ACTOR.SUPPORT.HALEY 3.9
ACTOR.SUPPORT.WAHLBERG 2.5
ACTRESS.SUPPORT.HUDSON 78
ACTRESS.SUPPORT.BRESLIN 11
ACTRESS.SUPPORT.BLANCHETT 3.5
ACTRESS.SUPPORT.KIKUCHI 3
ACTRESS.SUPPORT.BARRAZA 2.1
DOCUM.INCONVENIENTTRUTH 80.2
DOCUM.JESUSCAMP 1
DOCUM.DELIVERFROMEVIL -
DOCUM.IRAQINFRAGMENTS -
DOCUM.MYCOUNTRY -
