SITUATION ANALYSIS - "ECONOMICS IN AMERICA" IS FAILING, INSTITUTIONALLY
Economics is one, of course, because economic outcomes have national security implications.
Look, instead, to how differently we view and handle 'national crisis' that is military in nature versus what is economic in nature.
Indeed, if one got deeply uncharitable, you could say that the entire, massive multi-decade effort of the NBER to provide the data and understanding, even in exigent circumstances, sufficient to addressing precisely the kind of mess we are in today has failed us, and that shortcoming looks set to get worse, alongside the pain in the real economy, before it gets better.
The military have a chain, a coordinated Joint-Chiefs, and an almost unbelievable ability to marshal its resources to develop a situation analysis that is comprehensive -theoretically and otherwise - and cutting edge, under pressure and in time. The net result of this is to provide a range of options and opinions.Can we say that "economics in America" has provided anything remotely similar, timely, and comprehensive? Are we supposed to divine a decent situation analysis from a long series of finger-pointing and back-and-forth along ideological lines? Editorials in the NYT, the WaPo, and the WSJ?
Wall Street itself appears increasingly to have its knives out for the Federal Reserve, if you read the tea leaves.
The TARP, the ultimate everything bagel, reflects technical differences and information deficits, not just policy disagreements. On the whole, as originally conceived, it might be the equivalent of launching an air war, when boots on the ground were needed...
In short, our National Council of Economic Advisers seems institutionally insufficient to the job, no parallel to the National Security Council. We've had an economic 9/11, arguably. Are they handling it better than the CIA?
Even critical decision-quality data on systemwide mortgage defaults and mortgage loan structures seems elusive, out of the public's hands. Recall that it wasn't until after the 1930s that people decided it might be a good idea to have public, formalized, comprehensive data on the basics of the economy, including labor statistics and everything else. History is repeating itself?
Indeed, if one got deeply uncharitable, you could say that the entire, massive multi-decade effort of the NBER to provide the data and understanding sufficient, even in exigent circumstances, to avoiding precisely the kind of mess we are in today has failed us, and that shortcoming looks set to get worse, alongside the pain in the real economy, before it gets better.
