IF YOU PLAY THE ODDS, EVEN THOUGH ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
AS writes:
Tomorrow, the Dish will be relentless in bringing you every morsel of anecdotage, every sliver of exit polls, and every telling photograph from the field.
As some readers may recall, this blog made a foray into combinatorics, a while back, when Nate Silver asked how many ways there were to 'win by thaaat much' (one state over, but no more).FLORIDA IS THE KEYSTONE FOR DEMOCRATS
Then, as now, I hoped that Obama/Hillary could bring home Florida, despite GOP pandering.
With Michigan now considered 'out of play', there is likely no McCain Presidency, absent Florida.
He would have to win all ten of these states to make his tally. This is based on the MSNBC map, with all red leaning states going to McCain and all leaning Obama states in the toss-up category.
This will help in your early watching guide. A call for Virginia and a call for Florida means the night is over, hopefully, for the Presidency. Of course, all attention will be on the Congressional races and all the anti-gay ballot initiatives.
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-MT
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-ND
Not to slight Pennsylvania, but if it goes Blue, then the GOP have two chances, both involving nine states, as follows:
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
I say this, because it would be so nice, going forward, if the people of the USA were not captive to ... downstate Ohio, frankly.
As a side note, you can assume that the McCain people have this list, explaining tonight's stops in Roswell, NM, and Henderson, NV.
IF YOU LIKE TO BITE YOUR NAILS
...or pray for the land of oranges to come through, here is McCain's full opportunity set (based on 113 needed to complement 157 red or red-leaning):
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,11-IN
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,5-NV
9: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-ND
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-MT
| Battleground | Blue States | Red States | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Election | Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico | Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington | Arkansas, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming |
