"What if we are wrong?" "What if we are wrong?" "What if we are wrong?"

DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY - LESSON A

We have good news, so far, about Obama's decision-making process. On one account, at least, he forces people to speak-up during meetings, in contrast to his immediate predecessor. God knows, he's surrounded himself with enough opposing opinions, so 'imagination bias' doesn't appear to be an issue.

The tealeaves suggest that he's not asking, "What if you are wrong, guys?", enough. That is one very important question, when time is at a premium but resources are not scarce (yet).

This is my read of the tea leaves, based on today's NYT story about the Treasury. In a crisis, you prep three and hope to get one. Same for Krugman's ear-to-the-ground analysis of why the housing/banking proposals may have lacked detail, initially: in a crisis, you prep three or four viable alternatives, you don't flesh out just one (so long as you have the staff to do it), because time is short and you cannot afford to go back to square one, if you decide to 'switch course'.

Of course, Paulson & Co., in true Bush fashion, and no 'plan b', even one enumerated, especially for housing.

A NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER EQUIVALENT

Apart from a vision, and yes, even recognition, of what to do "comprehensively", there is one other area for attention.

...team Obama do not seem to have grasped that the old methods of organization are not sufficient...

Whisper reports are that there is lack of coordination among the economic advisers, both inside and outside. Readers here will know that I've already suggested that team Obama do not seem to have grasped that the old methods of organization are not sufficient. As I put it, they need something akin to the real Situation Room, but for the U.S. economy. They don't need fluffy advisory panels, with amorphous responsibility lines and no way to marshal huge amounts of data and situational analysis in a short period of time, as has the military.

The National Security Adviser, a cabinet-level role, is supposed to handle the inter-agency coordination, to get Chiefs, State, and CIA/DNI from pulling apart.

They may need (or may have needed?) something like that for economics.

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