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Sunday, November 18, 2007

Federalism - Until you Just Can't Stand It

The GOP's facile use of "Federalism" is again on display.

Now, when State's make their own choices, they are to be punished by the Federal Government. This time, it's Romney on immigration.

Romney has used the issue to criticize opponent Mike Huckabee, who as governor of Arkansas supported a failed attempt to extend in-state tuition and scholarships to the children of illegal immigrants. Huckabee has said he does not believe students should be punished for crimes committed by their parents.

Campaign Songs - Dusty Springfield

Because we cannot have Fleetwood Mac again....

For Hillary: "Can I get a Witness?"



runner-up: "What you gonna say, In Private?"

John McCain: "I just don't know what to do with myself"



Kucinich: "Everyday, I have to cry"


up-tempo runner-up: A love like yours

Fred Thompson: "Spooky"



Romney: "You don't have to say you love me, just be close at hand ..."




Huckabee: "The only boy who could ever reach me was the Son of a Preacher Man"



runner-up: Shelby Lynne, "Jesus on a Greyhound".

Gravel: "All Cried Out"


runner-up: "I'll go my way by myself"

John Edwards: "I'm Coming Home" [this is an elegant and beautiful song ...]
(skip past the Bassie part at the open)


runner-up: "I think I'm going back"

Richardson: "Get Ready [because here I come]"



Chris Dodd: "Maria Christina" with Jose Feliciano



Rudy Giuliani, mayor for life: "I Only Want To Be With You"


runner-up: Dusty in drag

Trancredo - still mulling it over, possible: "What Have I Done To Deserve This?"



Joe Biden: "I don't want to hear it anymore"



Obama - hummm - no clue, but try: "A House is not a Home"



runner-up for Sullivan: "I just fall in love again" and "I close my eyes and count to 10"

first alternate: "A Brand New Me" [with the magic Dusty hands ...]

Alan Keyes: good grief, how about "Knowing when to leave"?

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Trade Deals

LIKE THE PATRIOT ACT AND NIE'S, "THINGS THAT NEED TO BE READ, FOR 500, ALEX"

Loss of sovereignty, or, more precisely, judicial sovereignty, is one of the problems with the creation of trading blocks, which are not such a bad idea, from a realist perspective, otherwise.

It appears that the most recent "compromise" includes ensconcing the status quo, in a way, in Peru, by providing ... "environment guarantees" that mitigate the normal/natural risks of "free trading".

One can easily see a link between labor and environmental standards, so that "foreign capital" from America doesn't look so obviously predatory. What the heck does how a country managing it's domestic policy on pensions have to do with it, though?


John Edwards on the Peru Deal
The Hill, on the same.

"Gay Culture" Ought Not End


AS, ever on the lookout for the end of gay culture, notices this.

PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET

Rent is the impetus for the dissolution of the former enclaves, the "cultural centers"; and less so the grand cultural shifts that everyone posits.

After mulling the topic for a while, I think that gay cultural enclaves are a conceit worth keeping (especially, now, after cities like Chicago have ponied up money):

Don Sheets, who has owned the coffee shop inside Crossroads Market for the last year [in Dallas], said he would like to keep it open and expand with a café in what is now the bookstore. However, the owner currently is asking $28 per square foot, up from $11, to lease the building, which Sheets says he can’t afford. The bookstore and coffee shop occupy about 5,000 square feet.

Latest Reports from Iraq: Roundup

Exhibiting keen editorial selection, AS singles out three pieces on Iraq.

For readers, I'll summarize:

DUST GETS IN YOUR EYES

Inside the Surge
The American military finds new allies, but at what cost?
by Jon Lee Anderson

If you opined a long time ago that just Anbar was quasi-mafioso, this story lets you know that it goes beyond that to include the Baghdad neighborhood of Ghazaliya and that - surprise - protective militias in other areas have turned into 'extortion' rackets, fairly easily.

If the hope was some sort of civil society, think again. Equilibrium here is described as a story of vendetta.

At the end of a cycle of killing (or still some way along in the middle of it?), "Victory" here is the absence of people killing each other and finding a few people at the local level who seem to have the take-charge abilities required to keep calm.

Ghazaliya, [home of the "Mother of all Battles Mosque" and the neighborhood that housed Saddam during Gulf-I], is a microcosm of what Iraq faces as a whole. The Iraq Study Group said national reconciliation was essential, and I agree. Until Iraqis work out the Sunni-Shia sectarian issues, they’re going to have a very tough time making meaningful or lasting progress

Altogether, however, one has a sense of "arc" to the Iraqi developments.

From the 'insurgency' perspective, the first years were about bringing the U.S. (Bush?) to its knees, then the violence took on its own life under an 'alliance' with al-qa'ida using a sectarian banner.

After a lot of killing and refugees, as well as a move to change the security posture to make backsliding hard, the way forward seems both easier and just as out of reach as at the start.

The absence of a unbalanced will to tear things apart but to go along in grief over the situation is ... a turning point, possibly the hollow, unremarked "victory" point, in Lee's analysis. (It's true that some turning points in counterinsurgency are almost impossible to know, except sometimes quite some time afterwards).


THE WAY FORWARD

Katulis: Looking at the Broader Perspective
by Mark Lynch (a.k.a. Abu Aardvark), Mid East Scholar at GWU

This is a broad ranging discussion about the prospects for stabilization.

Not surprisingly, how to consolidate the 'security gains' politically is the main point of contention (as noted on this blog months ago). Neither a bottom-up or a top-down approach seem sufficient of convincing. This is the ultimate discussion about tactics.

Iraq is not a sovereign nation, but the leadership pretending it is have gotten out of the Green Zone a little be lately.

Few inside Iraq are calling for or supporting Provincial elections, from what I read here, something I thought was strategically important. *gulp* Turns out the existing power structures don't want them and the central government has other priorities, including the Sunni Block that exited the government in October.

We'll see what the U.N. comes up with, but this suggests that the idea of "National Reconciliation" as we westerners might think of it if being supplanted by other notions of what is doable.

Staying to police the power-block struggle for power might be a way to maintain U.S. influence, even favorable influence, as some have suggested. [However, there is ample experience that this does not work over the long haul. Two examples are from Ireland (see General Jone's report/comments) and possible the British experience in Palestine. The problem is that the two sides (or more) first turn on you, then on each other... This suggests that there has to be rapid forward movement in order to gather no moss.]

NO TIME, WILL, OR MONEY LEFT, BUT LOTS OF TIME, MONEY, WILL NEEDED

Iraqis Wasting An Opportunity, U.S. Officers Say
With Attacks Ebbing, Government Is Urged to Reach Out to Opponents
By Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 15, 2007; Page A01

Now that people aren't dying en masse, the urgency is ... not showing up in "results".

70,000 neighborhood volunteers participating in bottom-up security. Prior article notes that only 1,600 have so far come under the command-and-control structures of the government(s), a mere drop in the bucket of what is needed.

So, how to force political change in Iraq without destabilizing the country further? "I pity the guy who has to reconcile that tension," said Lt. Col. Douglas Ollivant, the chief of planning for U.S. military operations in Baghdad, whose tour of duty ends next month.

Fear Not

What is the swag one gets at a jihadi convention?:


After hosting a summit with Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas three days ago in Ankara, Turkey is now host to a giant gathering in Istanbul of thousands of high level representatives from hundreds of radical Islamist organizations and institutions from Morocco to Indonasia.

Cleaning up

Can this job really be "worth" $50 million? There are no competent alternatives for less?

It's on days like this that one remembers that they have a bleacher seat in the game of life, I guess:

John A. Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, can expect an initial pay package of nearly $50 million as he tries to restore the firm’s reputation and risk- management practices as it grapples with the subprime mortgage problems.

The pay package, largely made up of stock and options, could be worth more than $120 million if Merrill stock rises more than $40 a share in the next two years.

Friday, November 16, 2007

"Now you're back. From outer space."

Is this anything? Yes, you just have to see the opening (if you haven't), up until the mirror ball falls, introducing the 80s:


The Sparrow - One More Time




Song, Charles Dumont and lyrics, Michel Vaucaire

Democratic Debate

Let's figure out how to give Tancredo a wedgie.

I just saw the rerun (missed the first parts, however, but caught a few youtubes).

HILLARY CAN FIGHT BACK SOME (AND SO CAN YOU!)

This is the first "debate" that AS hasn't declared a "winner", so I'll assume it was Hillary in his calculus and that he just cannot admit it.

The questions and questioning was terrible. Miserable. Almost 70% came off as designed to elucidate ... nothing of interest, just possible material for the Republican campaign. (CNN has some stunningly right-wing moments, I think).

At the same time, the candidates can see these questions coming (like R. v. Wade) and ought to come up with more, I think.

Hillary was the only one, I thought, consistently wrapping up her responses with an attack on the Republicans, although Joe had a good point about the stupid phrase "this Administration".

OBAMA SHOULD PICK A FIGHT WITH GIULIANI AND WIN

At this point, I'm thinking (and I'm certainly no qualified campaign consultant), the best thing Barack can do is pick a major fight with Giuliani, now, and win it in the press. (I'm not sure why he hasn't sooner).

Chris Dodd's spanish was nice relief from George Bush's backwards efforts (but that'll scare a lot of Republican voters).

I like Edwards because he doesn't back down, but my first impression is that he shouldn't have backed down too far. For instance, if Hilliary thinks that Edward's concerns are akin to the GOP playbook, then we need to see her handle those. If she intends to dismiss them, that might be something to know (as we recall, Kerry got in trouble ignoring his troubles for too long, possibly).

Obama could have found a one-liner to defend his "Politics of Hope" from the Clinton machine. If I can think of how to write them, why can't he?

In any case, I'm still undecided, which is surprising to me. Perhaps it is possible to over think it... Still, these "debates" don't do much to vet the candidates. "30 second answers" and Blitzer talking over anything that looks like a solid exchange in order for ... whatever, just doesn't do it.

Somebody could have attacked the GOP's stool (pun intended), instead of talking about "triangulation" - or have switched the phrase to mean three-legged stool:

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Bad Tax Law Equals Perpetual Waste of Time

THE REPUBLICANS ARE ATTACKING THE PAY-AS-YOU-GO RULES, AGAIN

The Republican leadership had a news conference yesterday in which they all attacked "pay-go", as it is called, as some sort of formula for spending and tax growth, rather than fiscal responsibility.

They are trying to spin pay-go as a tax-and-spend formulation!

If I was running the Dem attack machine, this would be like gifts on a plate, for them to do such a thing while the Party is scrambling to re-cover from its profligate ways.

BADLY WRITTEN TAX LAW

Back when it was written into the code, the AMT (alternative minimum tax) should have been indexed. In fact, it would be a good idea to get two or three indexing formulas and replace most of the dollar values written into the tax code with indexed values, quite possibly.

Instead, time passes and soon the tax is applying in ways it wasn't supposed to and this provides an impetus, a gripe, a causus belli, for the Republicans to undue what has been done.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Mailer: Democracy is valuable because we can lose it

If the price of freedom is vigilance, no where is that debate more clear today than on two fronts.

TORTURE

Mary Jo White, who I like to listen to, proving why Ignatieff was right to strike early on the torture issue (I thought he was being redundant - that was before FOX launched its campaign to soften the beaches on torture). She needs to take a trip to Israel and find out why her judicial equivocating (on behalf of New Yorker's Mukasey and by extension, Giuliani) was rejected there ... by the Supreme Court.

THE ESTATE TAX

Something that has been around since the early 1900s somehow became an "urgent" issue, to save - wait for it - "family businesses"...

Warren Buffet was superb today in Committee testimony. (I'll put one up if I can find one. The whole feed from the Senate Finance Committee, today. Buffet begins around 34:00. It appears again on c-span late-late).

[btw, the Huckabee "fair tax" has the chance to rank as high in Orwellianism as "Compassionate Conservative"]

Mukasey - Will He or Won't He

... use his new position to help the Giuliani campaign (he was an adviser to the campaign, reportedly, before he was chosen by Bush in an effort to take politics out of the DOJ ... gulp).

What if Giuliani doesn't win ...

... could it be a Romney-Huckabee ticket? Yikes!

What would we call that, a plastic "mug" of coffee with Schnapps?

While I was thinking that early this a.m., it occurred to me that I haven't seen Obama debate a hardcore opponent, yet.

I'd estimate that Hillary would do well in a debate of Romney, but that Obama would do better against Giuliani direct style than against Romeny's slick presentation.

The Sins of the Husband

AS links Hillary to what he sees as the "sins" of her husband.

How does that work? On The Dish, she doesn't get common-sense credit for being a political partner, lest she submit to some sort of bizarre paper release demand, but she shares in the ... collective recrimination.

It's perceived as easier to lie than to ask for forgiveness, especially in politics, but including most other coveted leadership slots. All politicians ... ameliorate or try to not take on water they don't have to. On the whole, I cannot say I felt that Clinton-42 ever told a whopping "Presidential lie", in the sense of abusing the public trust. ["Lifting the ban" was thought to be a matter of Exec Order, like Truman's - it turned out not to be.]

VOTING THE ISSUES, NOT AS'S ... SWOONS

I like the outline of Hillary's health care plan better than Barack's. Paglia can continue to find depth in flag poles or missed tips - that's not how I vote (certainly Edward's pricey haircut didn't dissuade me). If Hillary isn't her ideal woman, so what. Who in the field is the ideal man?

I can't estimate whether Hillary is better than Barack on gay issues. I'm guessing that her Ship of State will have more gay sailors than will Barack's, who seems a little uncomfortable in close quarters, still, to me; but he might do more systematically and forcefully to help (as much as his party will let him).

We might fault Hillary for being "calculating" or "cagey", but Barack has passed a lot of ammunition to the Republicans.

Here's a final question: If I want eight years, and the next four are going to be pretty awful for the next Executive, including possible economic and national security challenges, wouldn't Hillary's well-known brand withstand a greater beating than would Barack's?

The "War on Terror", uh, Corruption, Drugs, and Illiteracy

The LA Times puts it in high relief just now, asking, "Is Maliki's corruption worth American lives?"

It's the same story from Afghanistan, "Corruption rife in Afghanistan-President [Karzai]".

The 'forces of order' have strong enemies - willing to kill 59 schoolchildren with a ball bearings bomb this week - and weak allies.

The Weekly Summary from Iraq is ... too depressing.

Weekly Casualty Lists: Week 46

Groups: MFN-Iraq, MNF-Afghan, Iraqi Civilian Casualties Count, Journalists (Iraq)

September wounded: 358; October: 47; [a new section for wounded forthcoming ... soon, I hope!]

notes:

The "battlefield" Afghanistan is HOT - you'll see it in the casualties this week.

If you noticed a pattern from the dailies, two totals this week that confirm:

  • 280 teachers have been killed since the 2003 invasion, according to UN report.
  • 60,000 people are currently detained in Iraq (International Committee of the Red Cross).

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: MNF-IRAQ


-------Name, AgeSrv BranchHometown

Rank, Unit

Location; Circumstance of Death

Casey P. Mason, 22U.S. ArmyLake, MI
Private 1st Class, 728th Military Police BN, 8th Military Police Brigade, 8th Theater Sustainment Command
Mosul (near); 13-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - small arms fire

Christopher R. Kruse, 23U.S. ArmyEmporia, KS
Sergeant, 2nd BN, 23rd Infantry Reg, 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division
Mukhisa; 13-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack

Peter W. Schmidt, 30U.S. ArmyEureka, CA
Specialist, 2nd BN, 23rd Infantry Reg, 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division
Mukhisa; 13-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack

Joseph M. Vanek, 22U.S. ArmyElmhurst, IL
Sergeant, 2nd BN, 325th Airborne Infantry Reg, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division
Baghdad; 12-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - small arms fire

Jermaine D. Franklin, 22U.S. ArmyArlington, TX
Specialist, 1st Squadron, 32nd Cavalry Reg, 1st Brigade Combat Team, (Air Assault) 101st Airborne Division
Jisr Naft; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED, grenades

Benjamin D. Tiffner, 31U.S. Armyn.a., WV
Captain, 1st BN, 5th Special Forces Group (Airborne)
Baghdad; 07-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack

Lui Tumanuvao, 29U.S. ArmyFagaalu, AS
Sergeant, 1st BN, 30th Infantry Reg, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division
Arab Jabour; 07-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack





WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: ISAF-AFGHANISTAN

------Name, AgeSrv BranchCountry

Rank, Unit

Location; Circumstance of Death
Name Not Released YetNot reported yetn.a.
Not reported yet, Not reported yet
Eastern Afghanistan; 12-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack
Adrian Hike, 26Not reported yetRalston, IA
Sergeant, 173rd Airborne
Eastern Afghanistan; 12-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack
Patrick F. Kutschbach, 25U.S. ArmyMcKees Rocks, PA
Staff Sergeant, 1st Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group
Tagab (Died in Bagram); 10-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Phillip Allen Bocks, 28U.S. MarineTroy, MI
Sergeant, Not reported yet
Aranus; 10-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Joseph M. Lancour, 21U.S. ArmySwartz Creek, MI
Private 1st Class, 2nd Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
Aranus; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Lester G. Roque, 23U.S. ArmyTorrance, CA
Specialist, 2nd Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
Aranus; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Sean K. A. Langevin, 23U.S. ArmyWalnut Creek, CA
Specialist, 2nd Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
Aranus; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Jeffery S. Mersman, 23U.S. ArmyParker, KS
Sergeant, 2nd Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
Aranus; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Matthew C. Ferrara, 24U.S. ArmyTorrance, CA
1st Lieutenant, 2nd Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team
Aranus; 09-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - RPG attack
Jake Alderton, 22British ArmyBexley-UK
Lance Corporal, 20 Field Squadron, 36 Engineer Regiment
Sangin (Helmand Province); 09-Nov-07; Non-hostile - vehicle accident
Kristoffer Sørli Jørgensen, 22Norwegian Home GuardStange-Norway
Private, Opplandske Heimevernsdistrikt 05
Maymana (near); 08-Nov-07; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: IRAQI CIVILIAN, counted by large event

Afghanistan
Counted Civilian Casualties: 206 this week; 229 last week; 283 prior week.
Counted bodies found: 57 this week; 130 last week; 100 prior week.
Tuesday 13 November: 24 dead
Baghdad: 6 bodies.
Mosul: US forces kill suspected insurgent in his house, along with his wife and baby; gunmen kill policeman; gunmen kill medic; body found.
Baquba: 2 die in explosions.
Abu Saida: 3 bodies.
Kirkuk: policeman killed by gunmen; body found.
Monday 12 November: 31 dead
Baghdad: gunmen kill 2 policemen, Abu Ghraib; 5 bodies.
Baquba: gunmen kill academic, Dr Haitham Abdel-Salam, and passenger in his car.
Mosul: 4 killed in separate incidents.
Jurf al-Sakhar: roadside bomb kills 2.
Hawija: headless corpse is found.
Qadir Kam: family of 5 is found murdered.
Adwaniya: 5 citizens fighting against al-Qaeda are killed during battle.
Sunday 11 November: 17 dead
Baghdad: roadside bomb targeting US patrol kills 12-year-old child, Baladiyat; civilian killed in bomb explosion outside policeman's house, Bayaa; 4 bodies.
Baquba: gunmen kill student.
Mosul: man killed by gunmen; body found.
Qasim: body found.
Diwaniya: 3 killed in violent attacks.
Saturday 10 November: 42 dead
Baghdad: roadside bomb kills 2, Baladiyat; man is shot dead in his car, Adil; 3 'Awakening' members are mistakenly killed in US airstrike, Yathrib; another civilian is killed in the same airstrike; 6 bodies.
Diwaniya: US plane bombs two homes, kills father of 10.
Baquba: 2 killed by gunmen; 4 bodies.
Mosul: 4 killed by roadside bomb; gunmen kill policeman.
Balad Ruz: roadside bomb kills 2 policemen.
Friday 9 November: 23 dead
Fifty-nine schoolchildren were killed in the Baghlan suicide attack on November 6. Ball bearings were used in the Baghlan attack; police detained two suspects.
Baghdad: 2 killed by roadside bomb, Kadhimiya; 3 bodies.
Khanaqeen: 3 policemen killed in explosions.
Balad Ruz: 3 children killed in mortar attacks.
Baquba: a bomb in a field kills child.
Hawija: policeman killed by roadside bomb.
Albu Ajeel: gunmen attack on village leaves 3 residents dead.
Khalis: suicide bomber blows himself up inside Sheikh's house during meeting, kills 5 Sunni Sheikhs and 2 others.
Thursday 8 November: 40 dead
Baghdad: policeman killed in ambush; 4 bodies.
Falluja: roadside bomb targeting police patrol kills 6 policemen.
Mandali: gunmen kill 3 policemen; 9 bodies.
Baquba: 2 members of Awakening Council killed by gunmen; policeman killed during clashes.
That Thar: 7 bodies.
Mahaweel: 2 bodies.
Wednesday 7 November: 29 dead
Baghdad: gunmen kill the son of Mizher Al-Sheikhli ( a member of the political bureau of the Islamic party), Dora; also a maths teacher on her way to work, Mansour; 6 bodies.
Suwayra: roadside bomb kills 2 children.
Diwaniya: mortars strike house, kill 2 children.
Hashimiyat: mass grave containing 17 bodies is found.

WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: JOURNALISTS IN IRAQ

NameDate
Circumstances
None counted this week.

src: MNF-I, MNF-A, journalists from icasualties.org; Iraqi Civiilan: iraqbodycount.org; Afghan events from Bill Roggio, other sources