Call your Congressmen, if you want change even before day-one next January. The current Bush-led bill is being held up.
Ditching the President's legal analysis is a vote for the rule of law, in a way. It says that the Office of the President can't just institute what programs it wants, under the cloud of secrecy, and then come back to the Congress for "rubber stamp".
These are always touchy issues of the balance between Executive and Legislative. Robert Rubin took flak for out-maneuvering congress to shore up Mexico, during their crisis. So, an unburdened Executive is not always a bad thing. Still, the Bush-Cheney folks seem to have made a point or principle out of that style of management, not reserving it. So, maybe, it is time to "just say no" to all that.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
FISA, Part II
Monday, January 28, 2008
Pre SOTU
Bushed failed to spare the nation today by giving the SOTU at 1:oo pm, EST.
350+ days is enough to do a lot more damage.
Even as we speak, Bush's FCC is screwing up the D-block auction, from what I can gather.
AS's Gaydar Interrupted by Hillary Hate
The 1.2 mega-watt strength of AS's gaydar comes up with this theory without facts:
In fact, they have often done the opposite, using the fear of gay people as a way to triangulate for their own purposes. That matters to me. It should matter to gays and straights who care about equality under the law. On policy, there is no difference between Clinton and Obama. In terms of character, there is all the difference in the world.
When have "The Clintons" ever used fear of gays to their own purposes? Bill Clinton declared the first National Gay Pride day and opened the doors of the administration to gays and lesbians.
Like everyone else in politics who is running a full-spectrum campaign, gay issues are non-issue issues. In other words, they are not a "winning" issue, nor are they a technical issue, so the candidates are all more-or-less neutral, which is the rational political calculation.
MINDING OHIO, FLORIDA
Few in the GOP are likely to make the gay issue an issue-issue, this go-round. From their perspective, the political (and court) battles are largely won and there is no need, except in Florida, where there is a new Constitutional Amendment drive after most of the other States have already done something ... Still, we'll see how it goes down in Ohio and the other swing states, where the GOP may run "core values" campaigns (something tells me that the GOP might still give it the old try, despite everything).
So, there is not a lot of courage or character merely to bring it up. Keeping it visibly on the table, however, is laudable, since that is required now (an agent of change). Those comfortable with less visibility might be criticized for being outdated, but not without character, without more evidence.
[update: by the way, I have a new name for my secret plan to have 100,000 new gay registered voters in Ohio in 2008: "Operation Rainbow's End".]
McCAIN IS ANTI-GAY
As to who is politically right, we'll find out the in the general election.
McCain will not take chances for gay citizens during the general election. The so-called man-of-integrity has been a complete jerk on employment non-discrimination in the armed forces, a.k.a. repealing DADT.
Romney's worse, because gays don't deserve ... a human right to a family, rights and responsibilities and privileges pertaining thereto, right?
P.S. - THEY ARE NOT EXACTLY THE SAME ON POLICY
Hillary has offered up some specific ideas about what to do with DOMA. Now, if you are watching, those are fighting words, too. Why? Well, King George "The Decider" has, himself, said that they will mobilize the Constitutional Amendment crowd, just as soon as someone makes an assault on DOMA.
Secrets and FISA
We fought the mafia without a special, federal, super-secret program for eavesdropping. They knew their phones lines could be wiretapped, right ...
Why is al-qa'ida different, Senator Hatch?
Doesn't add up.
Sure, there are elements of unraveling a network / ring that are unique, but I cannot see how their secrecy requires even more secrecy from us/US, across-the-board. Can you? Certainly nothing to do with telecommunications companies, at least ...
The Lions of Liberalism Stir
OBAMA PROMISES TO TAKE THE POLITICIAN OUT OF POLITICS
Offering a bold vision in which lions lay down with lambs in American politics, Barack Obama accepted the endorsement of the Kennedy clan today, with fanfare.
THE CHIEF PROBLEM IN AMERICA IS OUR POLITICS
The problem in America is our politics. Both parties are peddling that now, except Hillary, who thinks that the wrong policies are the problem in America. Romney, for his part, thinks he can run, like Reagan, as a do-gooder Governor who wants to change "government in Washington" (even GOP government has failed). McCain is well positioned to run on that platform, because of his 'outsider' politics inside the Republican party.
Politics doesn't change. I distrust that message to the core.
Still, no one is immune to the vigorous message and the sense of hope, the changing of the tides (even Disraeli had to create his own political movement ...). On the whole, I'm more evenly tempered. I understand the emotional cycles that drive candidacies (like stocks?).
THE 'PEOPLES'What does change is the people in politics, the people who are willing to take the risks to fight the good fight. On that score, so far, I think the candidates are fairly evenly matched. Obama's record would be hard to describe as "bold", any more than Bill Clinton's could be adequately described as ...steadfast, on some issues.
However, Obama does seems on the verge of changing what people think of themselves (not quite there yet), and perhaps that will change what they expect of others.
That could "change politics" for a time, until 'the system' moves back into equilibrium.
Monday After South Carolina
S. Carolina has come and gone, with AS swooning like a schoolgirl ("Yes, we can" ...). It was clear (to me) that Obama was going to win, so this is not one I watched so closely.
It's funny (to me) that AS is ready to replace one cult of personality (viz., they way he describes the Clintons), with another, because one could make a case that Obama's ungrounded message of hope inheres in himself as the locus of a change.
CUSTODIANS OF THE PUBLIC TRUST
One of AS's readers thinks she has "evolved" past "The Clintons". You can take a so-called hard look at the Clintons all you want, but the bottomline is that Bill didn't betray the public trust. Nor has Hillary, during her time in the Senate.
With the notable exception of George H.W. Bush during his term can one say the same of any of the GOP Presidents in recent memory?
Almost all the "trust issues" that AS relies on are style points and issues related to getting and holding power. The rest are debates about political possibilities - what people used to mean when they said, "politician".
Friday, January 25, 2008
Prediction: AS Will Abandon Obama Within 15 months
AS writes:
The queer left jumps yet another shark.
One reads what these folks are trying to do with their funny string of letters, and you just know that AS is going to abandon Obama after 15 months in office, giver or take. There is no ideological kinship there, other than to oppose everything Clinton.
AS Clinton-Apoplexy Meter
I'm not sure why AS didn't just blog for the Obama campaign, eh?
After a prolific day, I'd guess that we've topped all previous one-day records for Clinton-bashing.
AS elevated Bill Clinton's words to "shameless" today. Shameless? You suggest that someone is getting a "free pass" on scrutiny of their war-vote record and that is "shameless"? True, he took liberty with the Reagan comments, but was hardly shameless with it.
Yes, Andrew, it is the 1990s again, when one has the liberty from the GOP to say anything about the Clintons that you want, with near impunity.
[Here's a test for those who think I'm just making it up: will Pagilia pen a cutting and bitter exposé on McCain's faulty psychological relationship with women and his legendary temper, one similar to the screed she 'got away with' in her piece on Hillary?]
Anyway, here's the list:
Hillary Clinton's New Black Friend
PAC Pelosi Does As She Is Told
PELOSI-SCHUMER SET STAGE FOR GOVERNMENT BAILOUT AND HUGE TAXPAYER LOSSES IN UPCOMING YEARS
Based on the reports, the government is now in the business of subsidizing and guaranteeing mortgage loans of up to a whopping $730,000.
A program that started to help people get their first home in America is now all about a bailout for lenders. ("Hey, Mikey, refinance this, so I can go home with the money I lent.").
Sound totally ridiculous? It is. It's not your government, silly; it's theirs.
Anyway, consider buying U.S. financial stocks - a certain, large California one? - on this news of government credit giveaways (and maybe even the insurers). You'll need the returns to pay the tax bill (bailout of the GSEs) when it comes due for this bogus move.
Advice for Freshman (Or anyone)
AS finds posters here.
My suggestion?
"Advance your emotional IQ: Ask someone how to negotiate safe sex."
Although, 18 might be way too late, if you believe the statistics about kids these days ...
In the Wake of Facism
"Italians" change their shirt government, again. Details not required reading.
Djokovic's Revenge
Djokovic 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (5) in the Australian Open semifinals Friday, against Federer. (photo: Andrew Brownbill / AP)
GOP to Leave Office With Biggest Deficit Since Ronald Reagan
Our baseline – which assumes no change in current law — suggests that among other factors, the slowing economy will boost the deficit to $219 billion, or 1.5 percent of GDP, this year. If Congress provides the additional funding for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan requested by the Administration, the deficit would rise to $250 billion. And if a fiscal stimulus package is enacted, the 2008 deficit could be substantially higher – and at least from a short-term stimulus perspective, that could be desirable. The fiscal 2007 deficit was $163 billion, or 1.2% of GDP - Orzag guy from the CBO
The spice must flow ... gulp.
DEMS DO REPUBLICAN-LITE STIMULUS
If you really believe that we are headed toward a recession, the Dem-agreed package does nothing but shift the brunt of it to the term of the next President.
The Dems have validated the Republican-inspired model that tax-cuts are an appropriate cyclical tool. (Gee thanks, Larry Summers). No unemployment insurance special contingency is included (it really is cut-tax and spend ...).
They broke the principle of "targeted", by bowing to GOP pressure on accelerated depreciation for everyone.
How meaningful "the package" is to middle classes is also debatable, considering a doubling of "expenses" eligible for deduction for small business owners, who are probably not "middle class". (do the math: $125K deduction increase @ 30% tax rate = $37,500 tax cut for small business owners, not $600 ...).
Last, there is absolutely no direct investment in the package. Instead of passing on a strengthened public infrastructure as a legacy, the next generation will get ... the bill.
Cheers! Eat, drink, and be merry - it's your Party!
A Fraud Unraveled
There is now a face to go with the legacy of Jérôme Kerviel.
Meanwhile, check this out (NYTimes):
The timing could hardly have been worse. Société Générale was forced to begin unwinding the trades on Monday “under conditions of extreme market volatility,” Mr. Bouton said.
Bank officials insisted that the volume of their sales on Monday was not large enough to have a major influence on markets.
MASSIVE RISK
Well, let's do the math. These were simple directional bets (futures contracts - "Delta One"), reportedly. He lost $7.2 billion. On a 10% adverse move that implies a notional position of $72 billion [!]. Even a 20% adverse move would imply a notional position of $36 billion.
Yeah, I think dumping $36 to $72 billion on one day in the market would be pretty massive. [Oh, yeah, and if I were a regulator and I didn't know about what was going on from SoGen, I'd be throwing-the-phone mad.]
Anyway, if that's not right, then something else is at work. Maybe the losses somehow occurred over a long period of time. Maybe there is also more to the story...
Weekly Casualty Lists: Week 4, Year A+7
WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: MNF-IRAQ
| ------- | Name, Age | Srv Branch | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank, Unit | |||
| Location; Circumstance of Death | |||
| Michael R. Sturdivant, 20 | U.S. Army | Conway, AR | |
| Sergeant, 431st Civil Affairs BN, U.S. Army Civil Affairs & Psychological Operations Command (Airborne) | |||
| Kirkuk; 22-Jan-08; Non-hostile - vehicle accident | |||
| Justin R. Whiting, 27 | U.S. Army | Hancock, NY | |
| Staff Sergeant, 3rd BN, 5th Special Forces Group (Airborne) | |||
| Mosul; 19-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack | |||
| James M. Gluff, 20 | U.S. Marine | Tunnel Hill, GA | |
| Lance Corporal, 1st BN, 8th Marine Reg, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force | |||
| Al Anbar Province; 19-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire | |||
| Richard B. Burress, 25 | U.S. Army | Naples, FL | |
| Specialist, 1st BN, 30th Infantry Reg, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division | |||
| Arab Jabour; 19-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack | |||
| Jon M. Schoolcraft Iii, 26 | U.S. Army | Wapakoneta, OH | |
| Specialist, 1st BN, 27th Infantry Reg, 2nd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division | |||
| Taji; 19-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack | |||
WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: ISAF-AFGHANISTAN
| ------ | Name, Age | Srv Branch | Country |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rank, Unit | |||
| Location; Circumstance of Death | |||
 | Étienne Gonthier, 21 | Canadian Army | n.a.-Canada |
| Corporal, 5th Combat Engineer Regiment | |||
| Panjwayi District (Kandahar Province); 23-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack | |||
 | Darryl Gardiner, 25 | British Army | Salisbury-UK |
| Corporal, | |||
| Musa Quala; 20-Jan-08; Hostile - hostile fire - IED attack | |||
WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: IRAQI CIVILIAN, counted by large event
| Counted Civilian Casualties: 158 this week; 98 last week. | |
| Counted bodies found: 34 this week; 38 last week. | |
| Wednesday 23 January: 49 dead | |
| Afghanistan: | The Taliban killed two truck drivers, wounded two, and torched 13 trucks belonging to a road construction company in the Girshk district in Helmand. President Karzai said the Afghan war threatens to spread throughout the region. |
| Baghdad: | gunmen kill the head of dentistry at Baghdad university; 4 bodies. |
| Ninewa | |
| Mosul: | 37 die in explosion that brings down building. |
| Kirkuk | |
| Dibis: | car bomb kills 7, including a child. |
| Tuesday 22 January: 21 dead | |
| Baghdad: | roadside bomb kills 1; 3 bodies. |
| Diyala | |
| Baquba: | suicide bomber blows himself up in school, kills 1; gunmen kill man near clinic. |
| Buhriz: | 7 bodies of men belonging to the same family are found. |
| Ninewa | |
| Shirqat: | gunmen kill police chief's bodyguard. |
| Mosul: | gunmen kill university professor; body found. |
| Basra | |
| Basra: | gunmen kill policeman. |
| Kirkuk | |
| Bardi Bridge: | body found. |
| Wassit | |
| Hilla: | 2 bodies found. |
| Maysan | |
| Amara: | child killed in missile explosion. |
| Monday 21 January: 39 dead | |
| Baghdad: | man killed by US forces in the course of a raid, Amil; 7 bodies. |
| Salahuddin | |
| Hajaj: | suicide bomber blows up 17 people at funeral, in village near Baiji. |
| Samarra: | explosion near car kills 2. |
| Ninewa | |
| Qaiyara: | car bomb kills 2. |
| Mosul: | US air strike kills 2 policemen; 2 bodies. |
| Sulaimaniya | |
| Kalar: | gunmen attack house, kill mother and 13-year-old daughter. |
| Anbar | |
| Falluja: | gunmen attack police patrol, kill 4 Awakening members. |
| Sunday 20 January: 17 dead | |
| Afghanistan: | The Taliban assassinated the provincial head of Afghanistan's National Reconciliation Commission in Zabul. Taliban attacks in Helmand, Kandahar, and Zabul provinces claimed 12 lives. |
| Baghdad: | roadside bomb kills 1, Zayouna; 2 bodies. |
| Diyala | |
| Saad Camp: | roadside bomb kills 2. |
| Muqdadiya: | man is killed by gunmen. |
| Baquba: | 2 children die in bomb explosion by their house; gunmen kill Awakening member. |
| Anbar | |
| Falluja: | teenage suicide bomber kills 6 at Awakening feast. |
| Kirkuk | |
| Hawija: | tribesman dies in drive-by shooting. |
| Salahuddin | |
| Samarra: | gunmen kill former Baath member. |
| Saturday 19 January: 32 dead | |
| Baghdad: | roadside bomb kills 2 in restaurant, Sadr City; 2 bodies. |
| Anbar | |
| Ramadi: | suicide bombers kill 6 policemen. |
| Falluja: | 2 bodies. |
| Salahuddin | |
| Balad: | mortars target Ashura pilgrims, kill 5, including 2 children. |
| Ninewa | |
| Tal Afar: | rocket kills 7 at Ashura gathering. |
| Mosul: | bomb explosion kills woman. |
| Kirkuk | |
| Kirkuk: | bomb under pile of rubbish kills 2. |
| Diyala | |
| Wajihiya: | roadside bomb targeting governor's convoy kills 3 bodyguards. |
| Dhi Qar | |
| Nasiriya: | 2 policemen killed in clashes. |
| Friday 18 January: 37 dead | |
| Baghdad: | roadside bomb kills woman and child, Ur; 2 bodies. |
| Basra | |
| Basra: | 7 killed in clashes, most of them policemen; sniper kills doctor. |
| Dhi Qar | |
| Nasiriya: | 16, including 2 children, killed in clashes with Soldiers of Heaven cult during Ashura festival. |
| Diyala | |
| Buhruz: | 2 policemen die in booby-trapped house. |
| Wajihiya: | 2 policemen are killed in clashes. |
| Baquba: | 2 children die in booby-trapped house. |
| Shirween: | 3 bodies. |
| Thursday 17 January: 36 dead | |
| Baghdad: | 3 bodies. |
| Diyala | |
| Baquba: | suicide bomber kills 11 outside Shia mosque. |
| Diyala River Valley: | US forces kill 3 (2 women and 1 man) during raid. |
| Jalawla: | US and Iraqi forces kill 7 during overnight raid -5 of them a family of Kurds living in Shaykh Bawa village. When the family did not open their door out of fear, the forces broke down the door and opened fire. |
| Ninewa | |
| Mosul: | car bomb kills policeman; gunmen kill another civilian and another policeman; roadside bomb kills 2; another roadside bomb kills 3; car bomb outside church kills 1. |
| Basra | |
| Basra: | gunmen kill policeman. |
| Salahuddin | |
| Policeman killed during clashes. | |
| Tikrit: | gunmen kill policeman. |
WEEKLY CASUALTY LIST: JOURNALISTS IN IRAQ
| Name | Date |
|---|---|
| Circumstances | |
| None counted this week. | |
src: MNF-I, MNF-A, journalists from icasualties.org; Iraqi Civiilan: iraqbodycount.org; Afghan events from Bill Roggio, other sources
On the Beat
NOTEWORTHY
- JA pulls the facts from Cheney's official vitae (the secret vitae, we all suspect, is ... riveting reading), that he started the "peace dividend", not Clinton-42.
- The "Texas justice" mess over AG firings may not be over yet, says ML at Balkinization.
- "We The People" are losing in the cloakrooms of National Security, where the tradeoffs between Liberty and Freedom are being made.
Legal discovery, let along prosecution, to ensure accountability in National Security matters appears increasing remote. 21st century "wiretapping" is the province just for the princes of the Senate (who, in a twist of fate, are largely powerless to actually do anything to curb abuses, as we have found out in the recent torture mess).
"Swanee River" Debate
Ronald Wilson Reagan parted his hair on the Right. Willard Mitt Romney parts his hair on the Left. Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan. (photos: cufflink media) [read the link!]
[I apologize to regular readers that I missed this debate, before the election that may well determine the GOP's nominee.]
From the post-analysis, it appears that Hewitt might be expected to be ...er, "high on life", given Romney's ... combing his hair like Reagan.
I find it laughable that the GOP are running on a platform that Government doesn't work, either because taxes are too high or regulation too much or whatever. Seriously, they've had all three branches of power for how long and they are still making "promises"? Even McCain cannot ultimately spin that elephant.
ROMNEY ON HILLARY: AN OPPORTUNITY?
I want to see what becomes of Romney's attack on Hillary.
I'll tell you this. If I were in the Obama camp, I'd put up a trial balloon with the pros to see if the Senator would jump in to defend Hillary, especially if her campaign "ignores" the comments. I continue to think that people would like to see whether Obama can be a party leader; and, while I thought that he should pick and win a fight with Giuliani, Romney would do. It has its risks, but it also has the chance to break the news cycle away from the Clinton-Obama face-off, at least in the short term, while re-emphasizing the theme of the Obama campaign, if done properly.
Because the GOP are going to immediately go to work painting Barack as a "liberal" if he wins the nomination, just the way Fred Thompson tried to do, he needs to speak up now, early on. The number of good reasons to do so is ... long.
WOMEN
[By the way, how do you think Romney's suggestion that spouses say home "with nothing to do" is going to go over with the women voters of Florida? One starts to see how easy it is for the GOP to lose 50% of the vote, out of the gates ...]