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Thursday, November 22, 2007

Deconstructing Krugman

AS finds someone who's cooked up this:


But the circumstances are of course not the only thing to have changed since he [Paul Krugman] opined on this topic in the past. His modes of analysis and expression have changed too, and radically, in ways that often seem calculated ...

I say, if anyone comes along and offers you a bi-weekly column for the NYT, turn it down on those terms. It's almost impossible to do properly, on that kind of schedule, in my estimation (and it is no more just that and an estimation from afar, to boot). Invariably, people turn to "shorthand" to fill the column inches.

McClellan will ... recant

... that's my bet, putting it at 60% odds, rather than have the wolf pack turn on him.

[p.s. once he does, that should be about it. It's doubtful Rummy will ever say anything, except posthumously and Tenant was compromised the minute his say-nothing book came out trying to say-something. Cheney ... doesn't keep notes.]

Hillary on Foreign Policy

I think this critique of Hillary's experience is going too far.

The re-emergence of Bill Clinton on the international beat for America would be a good thing. The wealth of experience and understanding only a trusted word away from the Presidency is probably more than Obama can manage.

If Maureen Dowd is worried about experience on foreign policy (and shouldn't we all be, quite a lot?), she should be looking at Dodd and Biden, both of whom have more than Obama, who has not been involved in national politics except for a short while.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Victimology

From time to time, AS - and others, it's not personal - is clear that he doesn't want The Left sweeping him into a "victimology".

Are small town boys "victims"?

I'm just saying. It's worth examining ... all aspects of the truth, yes? It's not really a criticism, that, it's a call for a wider grasp ...

Reality "Show"

One of the best parts of going to the Vets is the fish tank ("aquarium"), which used to have even a few sea horses that are not so easy to keep:

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Our pets are old, but can you guess the number of puppies in this photo, hanging on the doctor's wall? (embiggen if you need to):

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Monday, November 19, 2007

Yes, Virginia, There is a Bottom

This Citi stuff?

For those with a long view, it's o.k. to dip a toe into the water, I think. There is not a "rush" - that's the good thing. Goldman sees "sell" because they think short term (and 33 is higher than 32, or whatever).

(It's seldom you get out ahead of the pack. Pat self on back.)

My guess - and it is a guess - is that the big money won't get behind the financials until January or somewhat later, which means that between now and the end of the year the little guys can have a rare chance to act first.

Other notes:

The Tier1 capital thing - red herring, in my view.

The $2 Trillion credit-crunch dollar impact from the $200 bn prime-mortage write-offs? Could happen, but it will probably be spread out, in ways that may not dislocate growth. Some part of a "crunch" isn't the end of lending, it is lending at a higher price.

The housing market stuff - serious. Keep an eye here.

The dollar - the fear of inflation over the weak dollar is probably small compared to the worries about $90 oil.

NY Times to Explain Itself

If you have to explain a joke ...

Same might be true about an editorial.

Good luck to the editorial board of the NYT with this enterprise.

Top Ten Blog Mistakes

The pros would look unkindly on my ... golf swing:

The List of Failures:
- No author biographies. [strike]
- No author photo: [strike]
- Nondescript posting titles:
- Mysterious links:
- Big stories buried:
- Chronology as only means of navigation:
- Irregular publishing frequency:
- All-inclusive content: [yikes - is this true?]
- Forgetting you are publishing:
- Having a blog service domain name: [strike]

The Public Eye

Somehow, I'm glad I missed this:

"Janea and Joyce Padilha tend to the author’s grooming needs. “The male version of the wax is officially called a sunga, which is the name for the Brazilian boys’ bikini. I regret to inform you that the colloquial term for the business is ‘sack, back, and crack.’ ”

Chris Hitchens, over-exposed.

Monday Mustache News


The aspirational mustache here and here (hey, kids want to look like their dads...).

John Wilkes Booth makes the list.

Simon has a good Movember, so far (see pic).

Another Simon leads the team (Edinburgh) into the woods of Movember ...

Time lapse .gifs!

In Tune for the Holidays

WSJ does a holiday sales blog, before Rupert Murdoch turns it into FOX (Freaked Out: Teens' Dance Moves Split a Texas Town).

It's all about ... Guitar Hero III ["Punk Rock Tried to Kill the Metal"]:


Sunday, November 18, 2007

Who Profits From Your Self Loathing?

It's not the boa and it's not the van and it's not hair, hat or ... shawl (?).

It's the sublime dress alongside the ugly willingness to wear a contestant number/placard:

Who Profits From Your Self Loathing

f:/ Isn't Flickr at least as good as youTube?

And that's the least of it ...

"Pull a Tancredo"

How to out-Tancredo Tancredo:

What a Real Parliament Can Do for You

Rather than the U.S.'s broken Congress, in which everything is debated in 30-second sound bites on TV shows and for which nothing is worth getting exposed over on the House or Senate floor, AS notes that Britain is getting along with it all much better:

There is instead an open debate [in England] about the length of time terror suspects can be detained without charges. Right now, it's 28 days. The Brown government wants more time - 58 days. When you remember that Jose Padilla was detained for years without charges -


THE FAILED LEGAL STRATEGY: THINGS THAT THE GOP WILL DUMP ON THE NEXT EXECUTIVE

How many people are detained awaiting trial? That's what I want to know. When I'm being cynical, the "reason" that these trials haven't been concluded is that the Bush Administration might fear having to let someone go. Exoneration might mean that they may have made a mistake, upsetting their public line for many years that everyone at Gitmo was a terrorist (by definition).

This a problem with military tribunals. Even if you talk yourself into the possibility of them, you start to worry that detention periods have more to do with Presidential politics than the facts of the case... And that is ... how far from torture, on a conceptual taboo scale?

Also on the list of things to dump:
-Taxes that are too low and little chance that the last budget will be balanced
-An economy that is going to reel from high oil (and natural gas) prices
-An Iraq stabilization effort, in which our best estimate is that it will take years for the army to develop to a size and proficiency after which they can 'stand up'.
-An Afghan effort that is hot, hot, hot, with experts suggesting that ending the poppy-trade will not be as swift as it was in Burma's golden triangle and the Taliban showing no signs of wanting to evolve into a 'political party' alongside others.

Rising Sun, Still Rising

Barron's is bullish on Japan.

Mee too, based on preliminaries (i.e. without currency considerations done, etc.), for 2008. Not confident that it will be a top market pick, but it is in the list.

Bishop Jack Iker: No Women, No Gays

Forth Worth, Texas, latest in string of four ultra-conservative to defy the Church leadership's request for calm and discernment, in favor of confrontation and separation.

[background - see linked article in this prior post, despite deliberately provocative title]