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Tuesday, May 5, 2009

More to the Story - Bush League

Hitchens comes through, as only he can.

I confess, however, that I still wonder why Hitchens doesn't consider that Bush-Cheney torture and abusive detention were part of a retributive mindset.

Despite their (all too vocal?) protestations that all that was done was about "intelligence gathering", can we yet rule out that the torture room, for them, was not their own way of serving up to "these people", including some non high-value detainees, what they thought they deserved?

I confess, however, that I still wonder why Hitchens doesn't consider that Bush-Cheney torture and abusive detention were part of a retributive mindset.
While seeking criminal prosecutions, AS writes, "My own sense, from a few off-the-record conversations as well, is that president Bush simply said: do what you have to do, but make sure it's legal. Cheney ran with that. Bush meant it as cover."

There is enough subsequent evidence to worry they may have indulged themselves, armed with "new authorities". We know from Suskind's reporting, for instance, that Bush was in touch with CIA operatives, not a little, but a LOT. He was a participant, not a distracted bureaucrat...

We can hazard from the inclusion of 'retroactive immunity' in the Congressional bills, that they had no confidence in their own "legal analysis".

The CIA destroyed the taped evidence. They extended techniques beyond the Administration's own guidance, almost demonstrably.

There is ample collateral evidence that there were ideological forces at work in the men behind the execution of the Executive orders. Look for it. It's nearly ubiquitous. General Miller. CIA's Goss (terrible case of it). Hayden, even. Probably Mukasey. Cheney. Even the timing of the decisions suggests that an ideological framework was in place, one that was likely criminal.

The Granite State

The road is long. The last steps are sometimes the hardest, in Maine, D.C., and California. But here is something simple and direct from one of my favorite states, New Hampshire:

How Gay Kids Learn the Hate

What message does this send to gay kids, when you have public figures in the GOP (saying what all of them are thinking?):

And, I mean, they know where I stand, and they know that I wouldn't have them [gays] anywhere near my children." - Joe, Last Year's GOP Useful Idiot


The clear message is that "Daddy Joe" will not accept you if you are gay. You aren't fit to be around.

Condi Admits that WHouse was "Terrified"

Quick, someone ask Palin and Romney if they were "terrified".

While the Administration was issuing reassurances to everyone, they were privately terrified:

"I hope you understand that it was a very difficult time. We were all so terrified of another attack on the country," she said. "Even under those most difficult circumstances,..."

- Condi Rice, AP

There ought to be a proper, independent investigation, if not prosecution. Dribbling out the story to the press via fourth graders is worse.

Think about the low standard we set for our leadership-mindset, though, forgiving all because they were scared witless enough to attempt torture to "save us". What will happen to "us" if a dirty-bomb (higher on my list than bio-weapons) or a nuke goes off somewhere (not even here)?

America is likely to become unbalanced, again, because of the way that this whole debate over security was framed by those (including the flunky Federalist Society?) who saw it as yet another "need" to assert the Executive and so on.

$100 Millin for "W" in 100 Days

THE GOP'S USEFUL IDIOTS WON'T GO NEAR GAY KIDS

For those who think that the free markets apportion wealth to ... productive causes just swimmingly, there is the strange case of the $100 Million in 100 days for George Bush.

I have to say that made me stagger back (Pentagon to Release 2,000 Photos In Time For Bush Library Opening).

And, it's not just because of the GOP's useful idiots, who are just recently telling their gay children, indirectly but plain as day, that they 'wouldn't go near them', seem oblivious.

Have a look at how the Bush Administration set our national energy priorities:

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced President Bush’s Budget Request for Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 for DOE’s advanced coal technology research, development, and deployment program is $648 million, a 25% or $129 million increase above the $519 million budget request in FY08. This $648 million request is the largest amount requested for DOE’s coal program in more than 25 years.

That's right. Our "free market economy" just apportioned nearly 25% of the average annual spending on "clean coal" to a library for the guy who passed out over $2.1 billion to research the issue, with no demonstrable results (at least Germany has a plant, even if the energy from it costs so much more...).

CAP-AND-TRADE WILL END UP MORE LIKE WAIT-TO-SEE


Cap-and-trade could, of course, force providers over to "clean coal". But, would you want your old, cash-dow, coal plant to be 'stranded' by Washington? Not a chance, right?

Look for the GOP to extract LONG lead times as concessions for any cap-and-trade legislation. Long is ten to fifteen years, with generous extensions given by the Congress critters - you know, like our auto non-standard standards.

It's one back-door way to weasel out, while appearing to 'do something'.

Still, it's better than a gas-tax, so ...

Meanwhile, not a dollar in the stimulus bill (that I saw, I could be wrong) for environmental clean-up or to ease transitions for old, dirty plants. It's possible that the stimulus bill could end up most as tax-cuts, as the spending in the out years gets cut.

Monday, May 4, 2009

New Bankruptcy Rules For When the Taxpayers are Involved, CDS Edition

Q: Are there certain circumstances in which CDS (credit default swaps) should not be paid after a bankruptcy?

Most bondholders have a natural interest in seeing a company succeed. In fact, many will work out deals (interest, terms, forgiveness, and restructurings), to give management a 'second chance', depending on the outlook and the circumstances.

Now, if you own a fully-hedged corporate bond position, do you have a vested interest in seeing the company file for bankruptcy protection? Yes, if you put your hedge on at prices higher than what is on bid, currently.

And, maybe this is what is going on:

...holders of fully 90% of Chrysler’s bonds are now on board with the government’s deal. - Felix Salmon

Jack Kemp

'FLAT TAXER FLATLINES'

No friend of gays, Heritage-Foundation Jack seems to be one of those people who got involved in the wrong ideas too early in life (or the people with the wrong ideas).

We still haven't figured out how to pay for his ideas, or capture in (tax) policy the few nuggets they did manage to uncover along the way.

In fact, the entire Laffer-led crowd has piled on more national debt than any despairing Keynesian could have imagined possible, even under weak kneed Congress critters.

It's fitting that he was able to see 'teabagging' parties, as the culmination of the Reagan-era postulates. And, perhaps, to see as well the monetary hero of the same, wondering aloud how self-interest and the wealth of the wealthy were not enough ...

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Quote of the Week

Rush Limbaugh, amplifying his views on the swine flu and showing, once again, that he knows his all-American audience better than anyone else, including those whose jaw drops when they read that 7% of America still think that Obama is a Muslim, crypto or otherwise

"[E]verywhere Obama is spreading Obamaism, there is a deadly disease taking place, either in the TARP community or in the newspaper business," he said. "Obama goes to Mexico -- they have an earthquake. Obama goes to Mexico -- get pig flu."-HuffPo

"Own it, America!", as Colbert might say.

Of course, Limbaugh has good company in the Senate:



GOP SLAPPED IN THE FACE, TWICE THIS WEEK

A short time thereafter, Arlen Specter bolted the party. A few days later, conservative-appointed Judge Souter resigned less than four months into the new Administration, another face-slap to the bogus leadership of conservatism in America (assuming that Souter is in good health, still).




The GOP continued to have amnesia, in hopes that, one day, the terrain will shift and they can seize on that, to get their mojo back, cf.
Gay America: all is forgiven!

Recession Proof Jobs

Turns out that Maggie Gallagher is getting paid $125,000 a year, to run a website, be available for calls, issue some sing-songy issue-reports and generally show-off her moral concern, for something that ought to be pretty low on the list of social harms in America.

That's right. $10,000+/month.

I so want to get on that band-wagon.

Update:



OMG, they are too close for comfort:

Brian S. Brown Executive Director
National Organization for Marriage
20 Nassau Street, Suite 242
Princeton, NJ 08542

I wonder if he was previously associated with the Robert George group, connected enough that they secured your (gay) tax dollars from the Bush Administration, in grant form, for the putative study of 'natural law' theory. That's right. Your own tax dollars were secured to help repress your civil rights, directly or indirectly ...

One of the laughable things about that group, as I recall, is that their compendium on why marriage is a public good was not available freely to ... the public (you had to launch a special request to get it).

In Torture's Wake: A Chilling Effect

THE DIRKA-DIRKA PRESIDENCY

Suddenly, some people reportedly have to think again, after having been part of the Bush-Cheney 'Dirka Dirka' Presidency.

STRATFOR laments that there is a chilling effect going on.

Proper alignment of the risks-rewards implies that, yes, people should worry. They ought to be thinking about building their necessity defense and the cost of the interrogation room, ...
Good grief, I hope there is! This is exactly what you want. To motivate people to think that there might be consequences, a broader context (even "wartime context"), for their actions. Didn't Petreaus try to effect a similar change in attitude, when he took over in Iraq?

This is a key problem with the regulate-and-legalize (RULE) approach to 'enhanced interrogation'. If you create zero risk (to torture), you end up with an insatiable demand. (Ask any sub-prime mortgage-broker from 2006, if you need further evidence.)

If this reporting is right, then it confirms how wrong-headed the RULE approach is. If torture is on the list, then one ends up justifying how to keep people out of the torture room, rather than the other way around.

Proper alignment of the risks-rewards implies that, yes, people should worry. They ought to be thinking about building their (personal?) necessity defense and the costs of the interrogation room, rather than whether they will appear like a super-cowboy to the Vice-President for having extracted information quickly.



Then there is this possible distortion from STRATFOR's analysis:

Politics and moral arguments aside, the end effect of the memos’ release is that people who have put their lives on the line in U.S. counterterrorism efforts are now uncertain of whether they should be making that sacrifice. Many of these people are now questioning whether the administration that happens to be in power at any given time will recognize the fact that they were carrying out lawful orders under a previous administration.

Just how many people do we have interrogating suspects? Dozens?

Hayden's op-ed indicates that circa 30 people went into 'enhanced techniques'. How does that imply scores of interrogators, who have "put their lives on the line"?

Too many, perhaps, read these 'reports' uncritically.

Hell, I know people who would look at that assessment and think, "Start firing people until the morale improves ...".

Drogas

Spend your money on interdiction, etc., or spend your money on 'comprehensive' drug-relief programs. The idea that all that is at stake is personal liberty is total rubbish (i.e. don't read CATO reports for the conclusions...). Anyone who thinks that government involvement, legal entanglement, and cost will diminish is foolhardy. It will shift, only.

May 1, 2009 2213 GMT
Mexico's Congress passed a law April 30 to decriminalize the possession of small amounts of drugs, Reuters reported May 1. Under the legislation, which was originally proposed by Mexican President Felipe Calderon, there will be no legal punishment for anyone caught carrying up to five grams of marijuana, two grams of opium, 0.05 grams of heroin, 0.5 grams of cocaine or 0.04 grams of methamphetamines. In addition, the law gives more power to state governments to prosecute those caught selling drugs, an act which currently falls under the jurisdiction of federal courts.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Krauthammer At the Movies

CK, 'IF ONLY {THE ROMANS} HAD USED ENHANCED TECHNIQUES AT {MASADA} ...'

I'll play along with Andrew's theme.

At the height of his powers and in full voice, Peter O'Toole, as Flavius Silva, in one of the ultimate rejections the Krauthammer time-exigencies, rejects hurling jews via catapult at the face of the fortress:

"We are Legionnaires! We are not barbarians!"

No one says, "barbarians", as well as O'Toole.

In the film, Silva risks his career and defies an order from the Emperor, so as to restore "order" to the 10th Legion, by wresting control of it from the hands of the 'special agent(s)', who try to force an expedient end to the contest.

[clip not available on youTube...]

Based on the novel "The Antagonists" by Ernest K. Gann, this 4-part mini-series was shot on location in Israel.

Collateral visions, however, are available (for Mr. Cheney and Mr. Krauthammer, who would draw conveniently neat circles for themselves around what they "have to" do):





Is Krauthammer's postulated "exigency" not also a political motive to abuse the torture room, a Bush-Cheney need to "show some results" to their wartime-rhetoric-excited electorate, to drum up support for their "enhancements"? Who knows? At a minimum, the slippery slope, is wide? ::

Torture for Profit - Another Reason There Must Be a Criminal Probe

Associates say the two made good money doing it, boasting of being paid a $1,000 a day by the CIA to oversee the use of the techniques on top al Qaeda suspects at CIA secret sites. -ABC news


Can you imagine if it were ever shown that someone had business ties to torture-firms?

Cheney, Rumsfeld, Addington, Haynes, Yoo, Bybee, Bradbury, Condi, etc., - do we have all their "policy" phone calls on record? Any pre-policy contact with those who might profit? Any political favors exchanged, monetary or otherwise. Rove?

Krauthammer - Moral Excusionism

TO KILL AN INNOCENT IS TO STAB AT ALL HUMANITY

When someone offers a justification like, "you do what you have to do", rather than, "you do what is right", you know the likelihood that you are being led (by the nose?) over the moral cliff is high. You can be certain of it, when they dress up the proposition in the thickest make-up possible, to look like, not just wise governance, but the sine qua non of "prudent" governance.

When someone offers a justification like, "you do what you have to do", rather than, "you do what is right", you know the likelihood that you are being led (by the nose?) over the moral cliff is high.
The idea that there can be no absolute injunction against "torture" is contestable, not just on practical grounds. It turns on the epistemological problems (that don't look anything like pacifism justifications - so much is just a throwaway line from CK).

I'm worried, but not concerned, that Andrew and Glenn are digging into the weeds.

What is just as important is the high-level view of how we legally structure what interrogation can be done, if there is a re-think of that, given what we now know occurred. That is forward looking and non-trivial. It might involve additional legislation. Otherwise, we'll soon have the next G.O.P. President, who can rescind Obama's far-sighted changes.

Also, a prosecution has added benefits that are being cast aside in the tall grass, like possibly putting a ring around evidence that might be destroyed and compelling people to be accountable, in a structured way. Sure, we might not prove intent, but that is no reason not to try, when the obvious breach is sitting in front of us, is it? Is it true that sometimes you "go to court", even if your case is thin, because it might be the right thing to do (if not the required thing to do, under law/treaty)?



Anyway, I have to go into the weeds myself, to pick up on one of AS's readers, in Krauthammer's slippery slope:

First they tortured in ticking time bomb cases but I didn't mind because it was a clear and imminent danger.


Stop right there.

The CIA, to my knowledge, have not yet alleged - yes, alleged - that they ever obtained information related to a ticking bomb.

I know AS's reader is just illustrative, but it's seriously misleading in the same way as that trumped-up Iraq to al-qa'ida link, yes?

100 Daze

THE FIERCE URGENCY OF EVERYTHING HAPPENING AT ONCE

I'm going to resist writing about 100 days, the 3 a.m. phone call, the ready-from-day-one anxiety that seized a nation, not so long ago.

G.O.P. makes teabagging a national pastime
If the rest of the Obama Presidency goes well (which is an odds-off bet, given the number of lifetime events on the horizon, all of which have to come up 'aces'), then the first 100 days will likely be seen as having been too timid. There is not too much that is of Legacy Value in the first 100 days. God knows, things like high-speed rail have the potential to be a black-spot history.

If the rest of the Obama Presidency doesn't go well, for any number of high profile reasons, the first 100 days will be forgotten, quickly.

To me, the biggest success appears to be the overseas tour. He should keep getting out of the House, it's obvious. But balancing that with an ambitious domestic agenda? God grant him strength and the ability to go back in time at least an hour each day, to keep ahead...

THE MOMENT THAT 'YES, WE CAN' BECAME ... {TBD}

Indeed, the number of tasks are so many and so large, it is good that he has a bunch of Tsars. Hopefully, they will do better than what is going on with the car industry, right now...

Senate Democrats Vote To Continue Bush-Paulson

The well researched effort out of the democratic caucus of the Senate Judiciary Committee to finally do something about the crazy primacy given to mortgage debt was defeated by ... Senate Democrats.{!!!)

Time of death, 2:47 p.m., April 30th.

Here are the Senate's Dems voting against changing the bankruptcy code and preventing millions of foreclosures, possibly (list below).

There is still no stick out there to go along with carrots.
Put another way, Obama-Biden are now "all in" on the voluntary plans to mitigate foreclosures put forward by Shelia Bair, which are schema that are NOT tested, wholly, even if they have informed judgments behind them.

There is still no stick out there to go along with carrots. And, if you know anything about lender behavior and the market failure of 'moral hazard', you understand why that could yet be a serious problem...

Baucus (D-MT)
Bennet (D-CO)
Byrd (D-WV)
Carper (D-DE)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Johnson (D-SD)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Specter (D-PA)
Tester (D-MT)

Update, Reuters: "Trade groups representing all quarters of the financial services industry pressed lawmakers to reject the measure and their warnings about the harmful impact of "cramdown" seem to have swayed many Democrats. Two more Democrats voted against the measure on Thursday than when the issue was first defeated in the Senate twelve months ago."

Let's Go Lemon Socialism!

This is what the Senate is trying to do, with S. 896:

Amends the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (FDIA) and the Federal Credit Union Act (FCUA) to: (1) increase deposit insurance coverage permanently to $250,000.


There is almost no justification for this high a limit (see details why, below the cut).

Why would we socialize risks of this kind? FDIC deposit insurance was set up with the intention of keeping unsophisticated people from losing their life savings in bank failures, not to pass out social guarantees to people with a quarter of a million on hand ...

THIS is the real LEMON Socialism, that gets written into law, most everyday. Are you watching, Paul Krugman? God, I hope so. I mean, it's not the worst of lemon socialism because of the way DI is funded, but still.

...and it is the Republicans who are cranky-crying about taking advantage of crises!

Put another way, this demand isn't a very Larry Kudlowesque "hip-hip-hooray" for some nonsensical notion dubbed "free market capitalism". It says that rich people have no faith in banks and won't put their money in them without a Federal guarantee. Pause, a moment.

This is testimony from ... wait for it ... the head of the FDIC (what does that tell you about the power of 'special interests' on the Hill?):

The deposit insurance coverage level should remain unchanged. We see no evidence that the current limit on deposit insurance coverage is burdensome to consumers. Nor do we see evidence that increasing coverage across the board would enhance competition in the banking industry. Moreover, an increase in the coverage level would increase risk to the FDIC and, ultimately, taxpayers. Thus it would be imprudent to increase the FDIC's exposure at this time by raising the deposit insurance limit.

Increasing the deposit insurance limit would do little for the typical saver, given that the median deposit balance is far below the current ceiling. According to the most recent consumer finance survey data from the Federal Reserve, only 2 percent of households with deposit accounts held any uninsured deposits. The median income of these households was approximately double the median income of households with deposits under $100,000. Thus, any potential benefit from expanding deposit insurance coverage would likely accrue primarily to upper-income individuals.