The GOP's perma-victim status seems to be coming unwound, step-by-step.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Fourth Worst News of the Day
QUIET HERO OF THE ELECTION
Ayers talks.
He had such amazing discipline about saying nothing during the campaign, Obama should have been thanking him for the election last night (at least privately). It really was a virtuoso performance of silence. Enormous self-control under enormous strain.
Today, he loses that discipline, sadly, with David Remnick at the helm of this 'defeat', this capitulation to "say something".
(He doesn't understand that there is nothing he can say, at this point. Nothing personal, that is. By that, I mean, he cannot be "exonerated" in the hearts of those who "convicted" him. The O'Reilly-Hannity inspired threats on his life are newsworthy, nonetheless.)
GOP Long Cycle Fatigue
The NY State Congress is in Democratic hands for the first time ... in an age.
In Texas, there is hope of a tie in the House, based on a recount.
In Minnesota, Franken is behind by circa 1,000 votes with just eight more precincts to report (and four counties to count).
...more later
Update: 9:32 a.m.
Missouri looks like it will go to McCain, by 5,800 votes only.
Franken behind by 600 votes ...
Update: 9:39 a.m.
Saxby Chambliss will not get the easy road. With 4% more to report, he's below 50% and the write-in candidates can only make his overall percentage lower.
Update: 9:44 a.m.
Al Franken loses by 726 votes to Coleman. Arrrrg! Factoids: Almost 24,000 "pulled a lever" for a Presidential candidate, in Minnesota, but didn't bother to vote for Senator. 360,000 more Minnesotans voted for Obama-Biden than for Franken. Undiciplined lot, those 'sotans.
Update: 9:54 a.m.
Just ... ponder that for a moment. Some write about the "core decency" of Conservatives/conservatism. Yet, when the rubber hits the road, it's the devil you know?
Honestly, it's hard to explain, even allowing for the Machiavellian "vote the seat". This headline sort-of says it all about the entire Bush "leadership" era, which Stevens backed: "Senator Ted Stevens accused of making false statements"
Update: 10:15 a.m.
As gay Californians wake up to their recently polluted constitution, the Secretary of State website crashes (one assumes that it is additional drain).
Les Années d'Errance
You have to admire for its audacity the sidestep in which, when Liberals take the reins, they are expected to ... cooperate. When the Conservatives take the reins, they announce, as Newt did, 'we have the rules committee, we have the House ...', implying that discussion was "nice", but not necessary.
Then there is Joe Scarborough, appealing for epistemological humility (for himself?).
THE AGE OF NON-TRIANGULATION
With some luck, the new generation, the net-roots, do not look set to be innately ashamed of being in charge and more likely than not to have their own ideas, not just responsive opinions to a Conservative-fed agenda (and certainly - certainly - more than the old-world, machine politics).
What's more, if history is any general guide, Conservatives will save their best ideas for scathing, caustic criticism, not for constructive input.
Put another way, Conservatives have yet to prove that they can be a constructive partner for change, right?
What's more, if history is any general guide, Conservatives will save their best ideas for scathing, caustic criticism, not for constructive input. Put another way, Conservatives have yet to prove that they can be a constructive partner for change, right?Put another way, Conservatives have yet to prove that they can be a constructive partner for change, right?
As for the rest, if American Conservatism wants a "comeback", one can come up with the formula in just four words: give integrity a chance.
The whole approach of spinning frequently bogus narratives that can be sold to fifth-grade-average educated voters ... could well be at the end of its rope, if the Democrats do the right things to consolidate their recent gains.
Nation Gets Hope, Gives Gays Second-Class Ticket(s)
FEAR AND LOATHING IN AMERICA - TEXAS POLYGAMISTS IN, GAYS OUT
Arkansas, captive to holy rollers, will ban adoption for gay and lesbian families, but will surely collect taxes from them so that other people's children can have their schooling paid for.
Arizona, on the other hand, had been one of the few 'enlightened' states, but now looks set to jettison that. A sort-of legal-beacon on the issue, Arizona had once rejected polluting their constitution with arcane social discrimination(s) by adhering, instead, to a thoroughgoing minimalist constitutional interpretation that kept 'activist judges' at bay. But that wasn't enough for America's Mullahs. They want "veto", just like their Muslim counterparts, over the constitution itself.
Out-of-state money, much of it Mormon, appears likely to keep ALL deliberative legislative and judicial bodies, including the current Executive from the "Conservative Party", from permitting civil marriage for gays and lesbians, in California. Los Angeles county didn't come through for their gay and lesbian fellow citizens. Neither did San Diego county.
America falls further and further behind the rest of the world. Meanwhile, gay kids get fed a constant notion that they do not have a full place at the table.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
A New Hope Rises From Illinois - Reagan Devolution Swept Aside, Confidently
I'm going to call it, so I can watch un-interrupted, until the California decision on Prop 8 makes the night sweet or bitter-sweet.
NOVEMBER, 2006: CONTRACT ON AMERICA - CANCELED
NOVEMBER, 2008: REAGAN DEVOLUTION - SWEPT ASIDE
The new face of Progressive America,
Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina!!!
Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina!!!
Update: FOX calls Ohio for Obama, and, thereby, the election. Reagan Devolution over: 9:18 p.m. EST.
Update1: Bitter night for Bill Clinton, who tried his darndest to return the favor, to Mitch McConnell, that the GOP paid to Tom Daschle.
Update2: Barack Obama: the only man to get a new house in America with no money down -- David Allen Grier
Mavericks on a Thread
MSNBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama.
John Sidney has but a thread left, two chances (within the realm of which states are likely disputed):
9 states: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9 states: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
Pay No Attention To The Winds From the East
via Kos, Westerners must hit the trail to the voting booths:
Update: Oliver W Holmes the 3rd, in the comments, makes a really good point for all you westerners. VOTE!!!! ... In 2006, Darcy Burner lost by just 5 votes per precinct. Gary Trauner by just one vote per precinct. VOTE!!!
Reading Mr. Market
It's quite possible that the enthusiastic stock market rally today is predictive.
Some of the "smart money" probably have access to the exit polls that the major networks responsibly wait to publish.
Just speculating ...
Today, We are Young Again ... Unless - We Get John "Gridlock" McCain
I'd explain, but I think everyone feels what I mean. Savor every moment, especially the early ones.
A special joy attends the end of our 2.5 billion dollar national footdance, an Orwellian-packed food-fight that we charitably call an "election". Never have so many spent so much to generate ... so few promises and so little real information.
Cynical of me? Have a look at Yglesias's list of questions, from the primaries, that the candidates never answered. Did the pressure of the general force ... clarity?
That frustration is probably as much at the heart of the "boomer wars", as any, on both sides of the isle.
Anyway, if McCain pulls off an upset, then we'll be old again ... and the Nation will age fast.
Good Enough For Government Work
With all the good analysts and all the people looking for jobs, the NY Fed goes for ... "that one":
In a move that is sure to put to rest the notion that there are no second acts in American life, former Bear Stearns chief risk officer Michael Alix has landed a job in the office of the Federal Reserve charged with assessing the safety and soundness of domestic banking institutions. -Clusterstock
I guess if you donate heavily to the industry lobby group, it helps your employment possibilities?
This is one of the dumbest Wall Street moves, yet...
The Imperial GOP
Because "Freedom" means 'no questions please'.
Rather than "straight talk" Ohioans, GOP launches Obama-will-bankrupt-coal fearmongering in last days of campaign.
She Just Wasn't/Isn't Ready On Day One
... at least as much as McCain looked like he was ... er, past his prime, when he became erratic and when he hilariously referred to Republicans as "my fellow prisoners".
What's the matter with Texas - Part II
They are out early, but some report that Hispanics are ... not going to vote.
Oh, Teddy, we so needed you again, here! :-(
Ballot Initiatives - Don't Leave Home Without Knowing Them!
It's true. Dixville Notch goes for Obama for President-44.
Our market overlaps with Pennsylvania.
The "Republican Trust", http://nationalrepublicantrust.com/, have been running Rev. Wright ads for three days now, including this a.m.
KNOW YOUR BALLOT MEASURES - THE GOP IS OFTEN IN THE DETAILS!
We have two ballot measures (national ballot measures list), this year, one allowing the legislature to get more involved in judge selection procedure and one about bond issuance. Good luck trying to find out how each party stands on the two issues ...
Monday, November 3, 2008
Math Calms The Animal Spirits
IF YOU PLAY THE ODDS, EVEN THOUGH ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
AS writes:
Tomorrow, the Dish will be relentless in bringing you every morsel of anecdotage, every sliver of exit polls, and every telling photograph from the field.
As some readers may recall, this blog made a foray into combinatorics, a while back, when Nate Silver asked how many ways there were to 'win by thaaat much' (one state over, but no more).FLORIDA IS THE KEYSTONE FOR DEMOCRATS
Then, as now, I hoped that Obama/Hillary could bring home Florida, despite GOP pandering.
With Michigan now considered 'out of play', there is likely no McCain Presidency, absent Florida.
He would have to win all ten of these states to make his tally. This is based on the MSNBC map, with all red leaning states going to McCain and all leaning Obama states in the toss-up category.
This will help in your early watching guide. A call for Virginia and a call for Florida means the night is over, hopefully, for the Presidency. Of course, all attention will be on the Congressional races and all the anti-gay ballot initiatives.
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-MT
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-ND
Not to slight Pennsylvania, but if it goes Blue, then the GOP have two chances, both involving nine states, as follows:
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
I say this, because it would be so nice, going forward, if the people of the USA were not captive to ... downstate Ohio, frankly.
As a side note, you can assume that the McCain people have this list, explaining tonight's stops in Roswell, NM, and Henderson, NV.
IF YOU LIKE TO BITE YOUR NAILS
...or pray for the land of oranges to come through, here is McCain's full opportunity set (based on 113 needed to complement 157 red or red-leaning):
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO
7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,11-IN
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NM,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,3-ND
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,5-NV
8: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-IN,11-MO,5-NM,5-NV
9: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-IN,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NM,3-ND
9: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
9: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,3-ND
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-ND
10: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-IN,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,5-NM,3-MT
| Battleground | Blue States | Red States | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Election | Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico | Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington | Arkansas, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming |
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Bold Leadership, Not "Another Stimulus"
Paul Krugman notes, once again, that consumers are over-due for a tight spell.
What is weird, today, is that we are having a discussion about whether we ought to do stimulus, instead of how. This is old politics. Post election, we may have a once in a generation opportunity to actually 'think outside the box', to really reach for New Frontiers.
We were more creative in the aftermath of the Iraqi invasion, for pity's sake, with a flood of ideas coming about how the Iraqis ought to structure their oil wealth. Our current lack of creativity is, no doubt, attributed to a lot of politicians unable to think in terms of transformative politics.
We ought not to forget that any Obama tax-cuts will be stimulative, but will not help those who are not on the tax rolls, anyway.
Here is a radical idea on how to 'stimulate' the economy: find a way to cut everyone's cable bill by $40/month. Believe it or not, $40/month is a lot in a budget that needs to pay down credit-card "over borrowing".
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)